Prediction for match Burnley — Aston Villa

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

On May 10, 2026, Burnley will face Aston Villa in the Premier League. According to the bookmakers, Aston Villa is the favorite, with odds of 1.67 indicating a 59.03% chance of winning. A draw is priced at 4.42 (22.30%), while a Burnley win is at 5.28 (18.67%). This reflects the current form and performance disparity between the teams, as well as recent head-to-head statistics favoring Aston Villa. The odds clearly lean towards the visitors, as confirmed by the probability percentages.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Burnley lost to Leeds 1-3, Manchester City 0-1, Nottingham Forest 1-4, Brighton 0-2, and Fulham 1-3. During the same period, Aston Villa defeated Nottingham Forest 4-0, lost to Tottenham 1-2, fell to Nottingham Forest 0-1, lost to Fulham 0-1, and overcame Sunderland 4-3. Over these five games, Burnley averaged 45.6% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 9.6 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Aston Villa averaged 51.2% possession, 0.8 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. In their last encounter on 05.10.2025, Aston Villa defeated Burnley 2-1.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Burnley - Aston Villa Match

Both teams have an average total of 3.2 goals per game over their last five matches. During this period, Burnley scored 0.6 and conceded 2.6 goals, while Aston Villa scored 1.8 and conceded 1.4. Both teams had over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches. In the first half, Burnley had no matches with over 1.5 goals, while Aston Villa had 2 out of 5. In the second half, Burnley recorded over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5, and Aston Villa in 2 out of 5. Goal intervals show Burnley most frequently scores between 61-75 minutes (40%) and concedes between 31-45 minutes (33%). Aston Villa most often scores late in the game (76-90 minutes, 36%) and concedes early (0-15 minutes, 40%) and late (76-90 minutes, 40%). The overall figures and frequency of over 2.5 goals suggest a bet on a high-scoring match.

Analysis of Total Corners

Burnley averages 4 corners per game, while Aston Villa averages 5.4. Over 5 matches, Burnley had 3 instances of over 9.5 corners, while Aston Villa had 2. The total closest to their average is 9.5, with odds of 1.73 for over and 1.99 for under. Aston Villa is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.63. In this situation, considering Aston Villa's attacking style and Burnley's frequency of over, a bet on over 9.5 corners is logical.