Prediction for match Burnley — Millwall, 10.01.2026

Match Analysis: Burnley vs Millwall

FA Cup, England, January 10, 2026 - Burnley will face Millwall. According to the bookmakers, Burnley is the favorite: their victory is priced at 1.74, a draw at 3.46, and Millwall at 4.90. The probability distribution for the outcomes is as follows: Burnley - 53.82%, draw - 27.07%, Millwall - 19.11%. This setup reflects Burnley's advantage, but Millwall isn't a complete underdog. The odds on the main outcomes indicate that bookmakers expect moderate scoring and don't rule out a tight contest, especially considering the frequent draws in recent matches of both teams. Overall, the expectations for the match revolve around cautious football with a slight edge for Burnley.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Burnley has averaged 2.4 goals per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6. Their ball possession stands at 42.8%, with 10.6 fouls, 1.8 yellow cards, and 1.8 offsides per game. In the same period, Millwall averages 1.6 goals, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8, with 43% possession, 12 fouls, 2.6 yellow cards, and 2 offsides. In Burnley's last three matches: January 7, 2026 - Burnley vs Manchester United - 2-2, January 3, 2026 - Brighton vs Burnley - 2-0, December 30, 2025 - Burnley vs Newcastle - 1-3. For Millwall: January 4, 2026 - Millwall vs Swansea City - 2-1, January 1, 2026 - Southampton vs Millwall - 0-0, December 29, 2025 - Millwall vs Bristol City - 2-1. The last head-to-head meeting was on May 3, 2025: Burnley vs Millwall - 3-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, both teams have had 2 games over 2.5 goals and 3 under. Burnley averages 2.4 total goals over 5 matches, while Millwall averages 1.6. Both teams score 0.8 goals per game, but Burnley concedes significantly more - 1.6 compared to Millwall's 0.8. By halves: only 1 out of 5 first halves saw over 1.5 goals for both teams, and 2 out of 5 second halves. Burnley most frequently scores between the 16th-30th and 61st-75th minutes (33% each), while Millwall scores between the 31st-45th and 76th-90th minutes (33% each). In terms of goals conceded: Burnley is most vulnerable at the start (0-15 minutes - 33%), after the break (46-60 - 33%), and at the end (76-90 - 33%). Millwall concedes exclusively between 46-60 minutes (100%). Based on this data, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.69 seems logical: neither team is highly productive, the frequency of under 2.5 is 3 out of 5 for each, average scores don't exceed the low line, and there is no strong over-profile in terms of halves and intervals.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Burnley averages 3.8 corners in the last five matches, Millwall - 5.4. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners: only 1 out of 5 Burnley matches went over, 2 out of 5 for Millwall. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to the sum of averages (3.8 + 5.4 = 9.2) is 9.5, with both outcome options available: over 9.5 corners - 1.71, under 9.5 - 1.99. The favorite for corners is Burnley with odds of 1.45. Considering the statistics, a bet on over 9.5 corners looks slightly preferable, as Millwall consistently delivers more than 5 corners per game, and Burnley can add activity in cup format matches. Individual corner totals for Millwall are also worth considering, given their average is above 5 per game.