Prediction for match Cagliari — Lazio, 21.02.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages

On February 21st in Serie A, Cagliari will face Lazio. The odds for a Lazio win are set at 2.50, a draw at 3.21, and a Cagliari win at 3.30. Looking at the probability percentages, Cagliari's win is estimated at 29.87%, a draw at 30.71%, and Lazio's win at 39.43%. Hence, Lazio is the slight favorite, but the gap is not significant, and a draw is also considered quite possible by the bookmakers.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Cagliari has played as follows: February 16, 2026 - Cagliari vs Lecce - 0-2, February 9, 2026 - Roma vs Cagliari - 2-0, January 31, 2026 - Cagliari vs Verona - 4-0. Lazio's last three results are: February 14, 2026 - Lazio vs Atalanta - 0-2, February 11, 2026 - Bologna vs Lazio - 2-5, February 8, 2026 - Juventus vs Lazio - 2-2. In their head-to-head on November 3, 2025, Lazio defeated Cagliari 2-0. Over a five-match span, Cagliari averages 44% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 14.4 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per game. Lazio has higher possession at 50.8%, 1.6 yellow cards, 8.2 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. These stats indicate Lazio's better discipline and ball control.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, both teams have had 2 matches over 2.5 goals and 3 under. Cagliari's average goals per match is 2.4, while Lazio's is 2.6. Cagliari scores 1.4 goals per game and concedes 1, whereas Lazio scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4. In terms of halves, Cagliari had over 1.5 goals in the first half once in 5 games, and 3 times in the second half. Lazio had no matches with over 1.5 goals in the first half, but 2 in the second half. Cagliari most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minute (38%), while Lazio scores most often in two intervals: 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (33% each). Cagliari concedes most often in the second half, evenly distributed across each 15-minute interval from 31 to 90 minutes. Lazio concedes most often between the 46th and 60th minute (43%). Overall, neither team shows a strong over-profile, but their average goals are close to 2.5, with more activity in the second half. Given these stats, a bet on over 2.0 goals at 1.76 seems logical: it covers both two and three or more goals, and the stats by series and halves support this choice.

Corner Bets

In the last five matches, Cagliari averages 3.8 corners, and Lazio 2.8. The frequency of over 9.5 corners saw Cagliari with 3 out of 5, and Lazio with none. Among the proposed corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (6.6) is 7.5. The odds for over 7.5 corners are 1.44, and under 7.5 is 2.58. In corner outcome bets, Lazio is favored at 1.92. Statistically, neither team is particularly prolific with corners, but Cagliari more often exceeds 9.5, whereas Lazio has not. A bet on over 7.5 corners seems justified, considering Cagliari's frequency.