Prediction for match Casa Pia — Alverca, 29.11.2025

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

The match between Casa Pia and Alverca in the Primeira Liga is scheduled for November 29, 2025. The odds for a Casa Pia win are set at 2.57, for Alverca at 3.09, and a draw is at 3.14. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Casa Pia 37.73%, draw 30.88%, Alverca 31.38%. Casa Pia holds a slight edge in the odds, with the difference between the teams' expectations not exceeding 6.5 percentage points. This setup promises a closely contested battle, where each outcome has a significant probability.

Teams' Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Casa Pia shows 45.4% ball possession, averages 3 yellow cards, 14.6 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. Alverca demonstrates 48% possession, receives 2.2 yellows, commits 11.6 fouls, and is caught offside 1.4 times per match. Casa Pia's last three matches: 09.11.2025 Benfica - Casa Pia 2-2, 01.11.2025 Casa Pia - Estrela 3-5, 26.10.2025 Braga - Casa Pia 4-0. Alverca's results: 08.11.2025 Alverca - Rio Ave 1-1, 31.10.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Alverca 2-0, 24.10.2025 Alverca - Gil Vicente 0-4. The only head-to-head this season: 02.08.2025 Alverca - Casa Pia 2-3, with over 2.5 goals.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Recent match totals for Casa Pia stand out: 5 out of 5 over 2.5 goals, 4 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half, 3 out of 5 over 1.5 in the second half. Alverca has 2 out of 5 over 2.5, 2 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first, and 3 out of 5 over 1.5 in the second half. The average number of goals in Casa Pia's matches over five games is 4.6, while Alverca's is 2.8. Casa Pia scores 1.6 and concedes 3 goals per game; Alverca scores 1.2 and concedes 1.6. Casa Pia most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minutes (31%), while Alverca scores most often between the 76th and 90th minutes (43%). In terms of goals conceded: Casa Pia concedes most frequently between the 61st and 75th minutes (36%), Alverca between the 31st and 45th minutes (38%). Given Casa Pia's high scoring and Alverca's decent stats, a bet on over 2.5 goals looks justified: it occurred 5 out of 5 for Casa Pia and 2 out of 5 for Alverca, with odds at 2.34.

Corners in the Match

Casa Pia averages 4.6 corners over five matches, Alverca 3.2. The frequency of over 9.5 corners: both teams have 2 out of 5 over. The line for total corners is closest to an average sum at 8.5: over 8.5 is at 1.68, under 8.5 at 1.69. Casa Pia is the favorite for corner outcome with odds of 1.85. Given the statistics, both teams are capable of getting at least 3-4 corners, and a total around 8-9 seems optimal. It's logical to consider options for over 8.5 corners, as both teams regularly achieve at least 3-4 per match, and the frequency of over 9.5 was recorded twice for both over a five-match span.