Prediction for match Casa Pia — Arouca

Match Analysis: Casa Pia vs Arouca

In the Primeira Liga on 14.02.2026, Casa Pia will face Arouca. The 1X2 odds are as follows: a win for Casa Pia is at 2.84, a draw at 3.20, and a win for Arouca at 2.73. The implied probabilities are: Casa Pia 34.16%, draw 30.31%, Arouca 35.53%. There is no clear favorite, but Arouca has a slight edge in probability. In other markets, both teams to score is priced at 1.85 for both options, and the total over 2.5 goals is at 2.28. The individual team totals are also priced above 1.50, highlighting expectations of a high-scoring match.

Team Stats and Scores

In their last three matches, Casa Pia played a 0-0 draw with Nacional, defeated Porto 2-1, and drew 3-3 with ABC. Arouca, in their last three games, beat Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2, thrashed Rio Ave 3-0, and lost to Sporting Lisbon 1-2. In their last head-to-head on 14.09.2025, Arouca lost to Casa Pia 0-2. Secondary statistics show Casa Pia with an average possession of 38.6%, 2.4 yellow cards, 15 fouls, and 3 offsides over 5 matches. Arouca has 53.8% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 12.8 fouls, and 2 offsides. These stats indicate Arouca's greater activity in ball control and fewer fouls.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams have shown a high-scoring profile over the last 5 games: Casa Pia and Arouca both have an average total of 3.2 goals. The "over 2.5" bet has hit 4 out of 5 times for both teams. Casa Pia averages 1.2 goals scored and 2 conceded, while Arouca scores 1.8 and concedes 1.4. By halves, Casa Pia had over 1.5 goals in the first half twice and under three times, and the same in the second half. Arouca had 2 overs and 3 unders in the first half, and 3 overs and 2 unders in the second. Casa Pia most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minute (27%) and concedes between the 76th and 90th (60%). Arouca scores most often between the 46th and 60th minute (43%) and concedes between the 31st and 45th (33%). Given the high scoring nature of both teams, the "over 2.5" bet at 2.28 seems logical for this matchup.

Corners: Stats and Potential Bets

Casa Pia earns an average of 2.6 corners, while Arouca earns 4.4 per game. In their last five matches, Casa Pia exceeded a total of 9.5 corners 5 times, while Arouca did so 3 times. The odds for over 8.5 corners are at 1.50, and under 8.5 at 2.31. Arouca is favored in the corners market with odds of 1.90. Given both teams' corner stats, a bet on over 8.5 corners looks justified, and Arouca's advantage in this area can also be considered. Casa Pia's consistent over-profile in corners further supports the choice for over 8.5.