Prediction for match Cesena — Avellino, 09.11.2025

Odds and Outcome Probabilities

In Italy's Serie B on November 9th, Cesena will face Avellino. According to the odds, Cesena is favored to win: their victory is priced at 1.75, a draw at 3.60, and an Avellino win at 4.75. Looking at the probability distribution, Cesena's win is estimated at 53.92%, a draw at 26.21%, and Avellino's win at 19.87%. This setup confirms that analysts lean towards a Cesena victory, but a draw shouldn't be completely ruled out, given its nearly quarter chance. The match promises to be tactically interesting, as the difference in chances between the teams is noticeable but not extreme.

Team Performance and Statistics

Let's examine the form and key statistics of the teams over the last five matches. Cesena averages 51.2% possession, commits 15 fouls, receives 2 yellow cards, and is caught offside 1.8 times per match. Avellino slightly edges possession at 51.6%, fouls less (12.8), receives 2.4 warnings, and is offside 1.6 times. In Cesena's last three matches: 02.11 Bari - Cesena 1-0, 28.10 Cesena - Carrarese 2-1, 25.10 Sudtirol - Cesena 0-1. Avellino's recent results: 01.11 Avellino - Reggiana 4-3, 28.10 Pescara - Avellino 1-1, 25.10 Avellino - Spezia 0-4. In their head-to-head on 10.02.2018, Avellino and Cesena drew 1-1, and the total of 2.5 was not surpassed. These figures show that both teams are not overly aggressive, but Avellino receives more cards and attacks slightly more through offsides. It's also important to note that Cesena has victories in their series, while Avellino recently had a high-scoring game against Reggiana.

Goals and Match Statistics

Analyzing scoring, Cesena has an average of 2.2 goals in their last five matches, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1 per game. Avellino has a higher average of 3 goals per match, but they concede 2 and score 1. Regarding the over/under 2.5 totals, Cesena has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Avellino has 2 overs and 3 unders. In the first half, Cesena has 2 out of 5 over 1.5, in the second half 1 out of 5; Avellino has 3 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half, and 2 out of 5 in the second. Cesena most frequently scores in the first 15 minutes (40%), while Avellino scores between 31-45 minutes (43%). In terms of goals conceded, Cesena is most vulnerable between 31-45 minutes (50%), and Avellino between 76-90 minutes (38%). Considering Cesena's low average scoring and the frequency of under 2.5 totals being less than 60%, it makes sense to expect a match with limited goals. The odds for under 2.5 goals are 1.67, making this an optimal betting choice.

How Many Corners?

Looking at corner statistics, Cesena averages 4.2 per game, while Avellino averages 6. In the last 5 matches, Cesena had 2 overs on 9.5, Avellino had 3 out of 5. The total corners over 8.5 is priced at 1.73, under 9 at 1.80, and the options for under or over 8.5 are priced at 2.00. Cesena's win on corners is priced at 1.36. Since both teams rarely exceed high corner totals, betting on under 9 or 8.5 corners seems reasonable. However, Avellino has been delivering more corners lately, so it's worth paying attention to the match dynamics.