Prediction for match Chapecoense — Gremio

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In Brazil's Serie A on March 16, 2026, Chapecoense will face Gremio. According to the 1X2 odds, a win for Gremio is priced at 2.54, a victory for Chapecoense is at 2.89, and a draw is at 3.31. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 33.21% for a Chapecoense win, 29.00% for a draw, and 37.79% for a Gremio win. Based on these figures, Gremio holds a slight advantage according to the bookmakers, though the gap between the teams isn't significant, promising a competitive match.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at Chapecoense's last three matches: on 12.03.2026 they lost 2-0 to Sao Paulo, drew 3-3 with Coritiba on 11.02.2026, and drew 1-1 against Vasco da Gama on 05.02.2026. Gremio's last three results are: a 1-1 draw with RB Bragantino on 13.03.2026, a 2-1 win over Atletico Mineiro on 26.02.2026, and a 2-0 loss to Sao Paulo on 12.02.2026. In their head-to-head on 26.07.2022, Chapecoense and Gremio ended in a 0-0 draw. Over a five-match span, Chapecoense averages 37.2% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 8.8 fouls, and 1 offside per game. Gremio averages 47.2% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 13.8 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. These stats indicate that Gremio plays more aggressively and holds possession more often, while Chapecoense plays more cautiously and commits fewer fouls.

Total Goals Statistics

In terms of scoring, both teams tend to participate in high-scoring matches. Over a five-game series, Chapecoense has an average total of 3.4 goals per game, while Gremio has 3.6. Both teams score an average of 1.8 goals per match, with Chapecoense conceding 1.6 and Gremio 1.8. In Chapecoense's last five games, the total over 2.5 was achieved twice, and under three times, while Gremio hit over 2.5 in three of five. Chapecoense's second half saw over 1.5 goals four times out of five, with the first half only twice. Gremio also had four out of five second halves with over 1.5 goals, but only one first half. Chapecoense scores most frequently between 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (27% each), while Gremio scores most between 46-60 minutes (54%). Chapecoense is most vulnerable between 31-45 and 46-60 minutes (33% each), and Gremio between 61-75 minutes (33%). Given the high average scoring, frequent over 2.5 totals for Gremio, and both teams' second-half activity, betting on over 2.5 goals seems justified. The odds for this outcome are 2.11.

Corner Totals Analysis

Regarding corners, Chapecoense averages 4.2 per game, and Gremio 4.6, totaling 8.8. In the last five matches, Chapecoense's total corners over 9.5 came through five times out of five, while Gremio achieved it once. The line closest to the average total is 9.5, with odds of 1.70 for over and 2.01 for under. Chapecoense is favored in corners with odds of 2.02. Considering Chapecoense has consistently hit over 9.5 corners in their last five games, betting on over 9.5 corners is logical. Both teams can earn corners, with Chapecoense showing a particularly strong trend.