Prediction for match Chelsea — Burnley, 21.02.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Premier League on February 21, 2026, Chelsea will face Burnley. Bookmakers have set Chelsea's odds of winning at 1.24, a draw at 7.31, and Burnley's victory at 13.90. According to the probability distribution, Chelsea has a 79.44% chance of winning, a draw is rated at 13.48%, and Burnley at 7.09%. This scenario clearly favors Chelsea, which is also supported by the recent performances of both teams. In the goal totals line, the most interesting odds start with over 2.75 at 1.51, making this option attractive for the main prediction.

Team Results and Statistics

Chelsea has shown confident play in their last five matches: on February 13, they had a big win over Hull City 4-0, drew with Leeds 2-2 on February 10, and beat Wolverhampton 3-1 on February 7. In the previous two encounters: they lost to Arsenal 0-1 on February 3 and won against West Ham 3-2 on January 31. Burnley, during the same period, won against Crystal Palace 3-2 (February 11), lost to West Ham 0-2 (February 7), lost to Sunderland 0-3 (February 2), drew with Tottenham 2-2 (January 24), and lost to Mansfield Town 1-2 (February 14). Chelsea significantly outperforms Burnley in ball possession - 67.2% compared to 49.2%. Both teams average 2.6 yellow cards per match, Chelsea records 10.2 fouls, Burnley 9.4, and for offsides - 1.4 and 2 respectively. In their last head-to-head on November 22, 2025, Burnley lost to Chelsea 0-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a series of five matches, both teams show productive football: Chelsea's average total goals per match is 3.6, Burnley's is 3.4. During this period, Chelsea scores an average of 2.4 and concedes 1.2, Burnley scores 1.2 and concedes 2.2. Both teams have over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches. By halves, Chelsea had over 1.5 goals in the second half in 3 out of 5 matches, Burnley in 2 out of 5. In the first half, Burnley had over 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5, Chelsea in 2 out of 5. Chelsea most frequently scores between the 46th-60th minute (43%), while Burnley scores between the 31st-45th minute (38%). For conceded goals, Chelsea most often concedes between the 31st-45th minute (36%), Burnley also in this segment (44%). This profile of both teams in terms of totals and halves supports the bet on over 2.75 goals, which is offered at 1.51. Given Chelsea's high scoring and Burnley's unstable defense, it's logical to expect at least three goals in this match.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Chelsea averages 5.2 corners per match, Burnley 3.8, totaling 9. Both teams have over 9.5 corners in 2 out of 5 matches. The line offers a corner total of 9.5: over 9.5 is at 1.64, under 9.5 at 2.13. Chelsea is the favorite in corners with odds of 1.13. Considering the average values and frequency of outcomes, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, especially given Chelsea's attacking style and Burnley's tendency to play defensively. You can also consider betting on Chelsea to win in corners, given their advantage in the average number of corner kicks.