Prediction for match Tijuana — Toluca, 23.10.2025

Match Analysis: Tijuana vs Toluca

In Liga MX on October 23, Tijuana will face Toluca. According to the 1X2 odds, Toluca's win is priced at 1.91, a draw at 3.60, and Tijuana's victory at 3.90. The win probabilities are distributed as follows: Toluca - 49.50%, draw - 26.26%, Tijuana - 24.24%. This makes Toluca the favorite, with nearly twice the chance of winning compared to their opponent.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Tijuana has averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game, with an average total of 3.8 goals per match. Toluca shows even more impressive numbers: 4 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, with an average total of 5 goals. In their five-game series, Tijuana defeated Leon 5-0 and lost to Puebla 3-4, as well as drawing 2-2 with Monterrey. Toluca, in the same five matches, secured victories against Queretaro 4-0, Leon 4-2, and Monterrey 6-2. In head-to-head encounters since 2023, the last game ended 4-2 in favor of Toluca, with previous results including Toluca's wins of 4-0 and 2-0, a 3-3 draw, and a 2-1 win for Tijuana.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Tijuana's games went over 2.5 goals 3 times, while Toluca's did so in all 5. The average goals scored are 2.4 for Tijuana and 4 for Toluca, with an overall average total of 3.8 and 5 goals respectively. In terms of halves, Toluca's first half saw over 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5 games, and both teams went over 1.5 in the second half 3 times. Tijuana most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minute (33%), while Toluca scores most often between the 16th and 30th minute (33%). For goals conceded, 60% of Tijuana's goals come between the 46th and 60th minute, while Toluca concedes 27% of their goals in both the 16th-30th and 46th-60th minute intervals. These statistics indicate a high likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Corner Statistics

In their five-match series, Tijuana averages 3.4 corners, while Toluca averages 4.4. The frequency of games with over 9.5 corners occurred just once in the last five matches for both teams. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.90, the same as for under 9.5. In the bet on corners, Toluca is the favorite with odds of 1.73.