Prediction for match Coritiba — Vasco da Gama

Match Analysis: Coritiba vs Vasco da Gama

On April 1, 2026, Coritiba will face Vasco da Gama in Brazil's Serie A. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: a win for Coritiba is priced at 2.59, a draw at 3.18, and a victory for Vasco da Gama at 2.92. Probability-wise, Coritiba has a 37.02% chance, Vasco da Gama 32.83%, and a draw 30.15%. The line highlights a bet on over 2.0 goals with odds of 1.60, making this option attractive for consideration. Based on the distribution of percentages and odds, the match promises to be quite competitive with no clear favorite.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Coritiba has an average ball possession of 37.8%, receives 2.4 yellow cards, commits 11.6 fouls, and is caught offside 2.4 times per game. Vasco da Gama appears slightly more active: 44.6% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 10.2 fouls, and 1 offside. Coritiba's last three matches were as follows: March 22, 2026 - Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Coritiba, March 18, 2026 - Mirassol 0-1 Coritiba, March 15, 2026 - Coritiba 1-0 Remo. Vasco da Gama's recent results include: March 22, 2026 - Vasco da Gama 2-1 Gremio, March 19, 2026 - Vasco da Gama 3-2 Fluminense, March 15, 2026 - Cruzeiro 3-3 Vasco da Gama. In their last head-to-head on September 22, 2023, Vasco da Gama thrashed Coritiba 5-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Coritiba's five-match average total goals is 1.4, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.6 per game. Vasco da Gama, over the same period, has a total of 3.8, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.6. In terms of over goals: Coritiba has not had a single match over 2.5 goals (0 out of 5), while Vasco da Gama had 4 out of 5 over 2.5. By halves, Coritiba did not exceed 1.5 goals in either the first or second half (0 out of 5 in both cases), whereas Vasco da Gama had 2 out of 5 in the first half and 4 out of 5 in the second half. Goal intervals: Coritiba most often scores between 16-30 minutes (67%), and concedes with a 50% probability between 46-60 minutes. Vasco da Gama frequently scores late (76-90, 33%) and concedes 33% in the intervals 31-45 and 46-60. Given Vasco da Gama's high scoring rate and consistent over 2.5 totals, as well as their over 1.5 in the second half, a bet on over 2.0 goals at 1.60 seems logical. Coritiba plays conservatively, but Vasco da Gama can increase the pace and create scoring chances.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Coritiba averages 3.8 corners per match, while Vasco da Gama averages 4.8. In Coritiba's last five matches, the total corners over 9.5 occurred 4 times, while for Vasco da Gama, it happened 2 times. The line offers a bet on total corners of 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 1.69, under 9.5 at 2.02. Coritiba is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.80. Together, the teams average 8.6 corners, but Coritiba's high frequency of over 9.5 corners makes the over 9.5 option interesting for betting. Vasco da Gama can also maintain the pace on set pieces, especially if trailing.