Prediction for match Crystal Palace — AZ Alkmaar

Odds and match outcome probabilities

On November 6, in the UEFA Conference League, Crystal Palace will face AZ Alkmaar. The odds for a Crystal Palace win are 1.42, a draw is at 5.00, and an AZ Alkmaar victory is valued at 6.00. The 1X2 probability percentages are distributed as follows: Crystal Palace 65.76%, draw 18.68%, AZ Alkmaar 15.56%. Crystal Palace is considered the favorite, although the odds difference between the teams is noticeable. This distribution is supported by Crystal Palace's strong current form and their ability to score in recent matches.

Team results and statistics

In their last five matches, Crystal Palace has shown 47.2% possession, averaged 1 yellow card, 13.8 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. AZ Alkmaar, over the same period, has maintained 53.6% possession, received 1.4 yellow cards, committed 10.6 fouls, and recorded 1.4 offsides. Recent results for Crystal Palace include a 2-0 win against Brentford (01.11.2025), a 3-0 victory over Liverpool (29.10.2025), and a 0-1 loss to AEK Larnaca (23.10.2025). AZ Alkmaar's last three matches saw a 1-0 win over Sparta Rotterdam (02.11.2025), a 4-1 triumph over Utrecht (26.10.2025), and a 1-0 victory against Slovan Bratislava (23.10.2025). The teams haven't faced each other in recent history, adding intrigue to this match. Overall, both teams have decent performance and discipline stats, which could impact the match's dynamics.

How many goals to expect?

In their last five games, Crystal Palace has seen over 2.5 goals twice, with under 2.5 goals occurring three times. AZ Alkmaar has similar stats: two matches over 2.5 and three under. In the first half, Crystal Palace had two games with over 1.5 goals, while AZ Alkmaar had four out of five. In the second half, both teams had only one match with over 1.5 goals in five games. Average goals over the last five matches: Crystal Palace 2.6, AZ Alkmaar 2.4. Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.6 and concedes 1.0; AZ Alkmaar scores 2 and concedes just 0.4. In terms of goal timing: Crystal Palace scores most frequently between 61-75 minutes (33%) and concedes most often between 31-45 (43%). AZ Alkmaar is most productive between 31-45 (44%) and concedes most often between 61-75 (50%). Given that both teams have average goals around 2.5, and over 2.5 goals occurred in only two out of five matches for each side, it makes sense to consider a bet on under 3.5 goals at 1.53. This bet seems optimal based on frequency and average values.

Betting on corners

Crystal Palace averages 5 corners over their last five matches, while AZ Alkmaar averages 7.8. For total corners over 9.5: Crystal Palace hit this mark 3 out of 5 times, and AZ Alkmaar 4 out of 5. The odds for total corners over 9.5 are 1.90, and under 9.5 is also 1.90. Crystal Palace is the favorite in corner outcomes with odds of 1.50. In this situation, it makes sense to bet on total corners over 9.5, considering both teams' high average delivery and positive frequency in recent matches.