Prediction for match Derby County — Birmingham

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the English Championship on March 21, 2026, Derby County will face Birmingham. According to the 1X2 odds, bookmakers favor Birmingham: Birmingham's win is priced at 2.43, Derby County at 2.89, and a draw at 3.24. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Derby County - 32.45%, draw - 28.95%, Birmingham - 38.60%. These figures highlight Birmingham's advantage, although the gap between the teams isn't too wide. Additionally, the double chance (Derby County not losing) is at 1.53, indicating some caution in evaluating the chances.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Derby County had an average possession of 46.8%, with 3 yellow cards, 10.4 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. Birmingham shows better stats with 57.8% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 10.8 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In their last three matches, Derby County played as follows: March 16, 2026, Portsmouth - Derby County 0-1, March 10, 2026, Millwall - Derby County 1-0, March 7, 2026, Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday 2-1. Birmingham's last three encounters were: March 14, 2026, Birmingham - Sheffield United 1-1, March 11, 2026, Birmingham - QPR 1-0, March 7, 2026, Charlton Athletic - Birmingham 1-0. In their last head-to-head on December 26, 2025, Birmingham and Derby County ended in a 1-1 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Derby County has an average total goals of 3, while Birmingham has 2.2. Derby County scored an average of 1.6 per game and conceded 1.4, while Birmingham scored 0.6 and conceded 1.6. Derby County had over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches, Birmingham in 2 out of 5. For over 1.5 goals in the first half, Derby County had 2 out of 5, Birmingham 3 out of 5. For over 1.5 goals in the second half, Derby County had 2 out of 5, Birmingham 1 out of 5. Regarding goal intervals: Derby County most frequently scores between 31-45 minutes (30%) and concedes between 16-30 and 31-45 minutes (40% each). Birmingham most often scores between 16-30 and 46-60 minutes (29% each) and concedes between 16-30 minutes (40%). Given these stats, a bet on under 2.5 goals seems logical: Birmingham has a very low scoring rate (0.6), and over 2.5 goals isn't dominant for either side. The odds for under 2.5 goals are 1.83.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Derby County averages 3.2 corners per match, Birmingham 6.2. In the last 5 matches, both teams had over 9.5 corners in 2 out of 5 games. Combining the averages gives us 9.4 corners per game. Among the available totals for corners, there's a line at 9.5: over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.90, under 9.5 also at 1.90. Birmingham is the favorite in corner outcomes with odds of 2.01. Given Birmingham's consistent higher corner count and the overall average close to 9.5, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified, but the under isn't ruled out. Also, consider a bet on Birmingham winning the corner count, considering their recent game stats.