Prediction for match Derby County — Leeds, 11.01.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the FA Cup on January 11, Derby County will face Leeds. Bookmakers see Leeds as the favorite: odds for their win are 1.77, a draw is at 3.52, and a Derby County victory is at 4.57. The probabilities of outcomes are distributed as follows: Leeds - 52.91%, draw - 26.60%, Derby County - 20.49%. Among additional markets, the total goals over 2.5 is priced at 2.04, and "both teams to score: yes" is at 1.89. Options for totals and individual team totals are also widely available, allowing for bets tailored to different game scenarios.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Derby County has an average possession of 43.6%, with 1.8 yellow cards, 10.6 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. Leeds has slightly higher possession at 44.6%, with 1 yellow card, 8.2 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Derby County's last three matches: 04.01.2026 - Derby County vs Wrexham - 1-2, 01.01.2026 - Derby County vs Middlesbrough - 1-0, 29.12.2025 - Leicester vs Derby County - 2-1. Leeds played as follows: 07.01.2026 - Newcastle vs Leeds - 4-3, 04.01.2026 - Leeds vs Manchester United - 1-1, 01.01.2026 - Liverpool vs Leeds - 0-0. In their last head-to-head on 29.12.2024, Derby County lost to Leeds 0-1.

Goals Based on Match Statistics

In the last 5 matches, both teams have gone over 2.5 goals twice and under three times. Derby County averages 2.2 goals in a match, scoring 1 and conceding 1.2. Leeds has a higher average total of 3.2, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4. In the first half, Derby County had over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games, Leeds in 2 out of 5. In the second half, Leeds went over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5, Derby County stayed under in all 5. Derby County often scores between 31-45 minutes (50%), while Leeds scores in the same 31-45 (30%) and 76-90 (30%) intervals. Derby County is most vulnerable in the first 30 minutes (40% in each of the two intervals), Leeds in 31-45 and 76-90 (33% each). Given that Leeds consistently scores nearly 2 goals per match, and Derby County struggles offensively, it is logical to expect Leeds to score at least twice. While Derby County has certain attacking difficulties, with an average of less than 1 goal per game. In the last five matches, Leeds went over 2.5 goals three times, Derby County twice. Derby County often goes over 1.5 goals in the first half, but their scoring drops in the second half. Supporting a bet on Leeds' individual total over 1.5 is their consistent scoring streak and Derby County's defensive vulnerabilities early in the match. These factors collectively support betting on Leeds' individual total over 1.5.

Analysis of Corner Totals

For corners, Derby County averages 5.4 over 5 matches, Leeds 6.2. In the last five encounters, Derby County's total corners over 9.5 hit 4 times, Leeds 5 out of 5. Among corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (11.6) is 11.5: total corners over 11.5 is at 3.00, under 11.5 at 1.36. In the corner outcome market, Leeds is the favorite with odds of 1.48. Given both teams regularly take a lot of corners, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified. Leeds consistently outperforms opponents in corner counts, as reflected in the odds favoring their win in this category.