Prediction for match Derby County — Middlesbrough, 01.01.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the English Championship on January 1st, Derby County will face Middlesbrough. The odds for Middlesbrough to win are 2.35, for Derby County to succeed - 3.05, and a draw is at 3.18. In terms of probability percentages, Middlesbrough is rated at 39.85%, Derby County at 30.70%, and a draw at 29.45%. The main prediction for the match is over 2.5 goals with odds of 2.10, reflecting expectations of a high-scoring encounter.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Derby County has an average possession of 45.8%, records 1.8 yellow cards, 9.8 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. Middlesbrough, in the same period, shows 64.2% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 9 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Derby County's last three matches: December 29, 2025, Leicester - Derby County 2-1, December 26, 2025, Birmingham - Derby County 1-1, December 20, 2025, Derby County - Portsmouth 1-1. Middlesbrough's last three games: December 29, 2025, Middlesbrough - Hull City 0-1, December 26, 2025, Middlesbrough - Blackburn Rovers 0-0, December 20, 2025, Bristol City - Middlesbrough 2-0. In their last head-to-head on November 29, 2025, Middlesbrough defeated Derby County 2-1.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Derby County vs Middlesbrough Match

Over the last five games, Derby County averages 2.4 goals per match, while Middlesbrough averages 2. During this period, Derby County scores 1.4 and concedes 1 goal, while Middlesbrough scores 1 and concedes 1. Both teams have played over 2.5 goals twice in their last five matches and under 2.5 goals three times. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred twice for both teams, while in the second half, it happened twice for Derby County and once for Middlesbrough. In terms of goal intervals: Derby County most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minute (40%) and concedes between the 0 and 15th minute (29%). Middlesbrough is most productive between the 16th and 30th minute (33%) and concedes most often between the 31st and 45th minute (50%). These stats suggest potential for a high-scoring game, especially since both teams are capable of scoring and conceding at different intervals. The overall goal metrics and frequency of over totals support a bet on over 2.5 goals.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Derby County averages 5.2 corners over five matches, while Middlesbrough averages 8.4. The frequency of over 9.5 corners: Derby County achieved this 3 times out of 5, and Middlesbrough 4 times out of 5. The closest combined average total is 13.6, but the lines offer totals at 9.5: over 9.5 is at 1.69, under 9.5 at 2.04. For corners outcome, Middlesbrough is favored with odds of 2.07. Based on the statistics, it's logical to consider a bet on over 9.5 corners, given the high activity of both teams in recent matches.