Prediction for match Derby County — Millwall

Match Analysis: Derby County vs Millwall

In the English Championship on December 10, Derby County will face Millwall. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: a win for Derby County is priced at 2.43, a draw at 3.02, and a success for Millwall at 3.07. The estimated probabilities are: Derby County - 38.52%, draw - 30.99%, Millwall - 30.49%. These figures suggest a slight advantage for Derby County, but the gap is not significant, as reflected in both the percentages and the odds. Bookmakers anticipate a closely contested match, with neither team being a clear underdog.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Derby County averages 37.4% ball possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 12.6 fouls, and 1 offside per game. Millwall's averages are: 45.4% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 11.8 fouls, and 2 offsides. In their last three games, Derby County lost to Leicester 1-3, fell to Middlesbrough 1-2, and defeated Swansea City 2-1. Millwall, in their last three matches, beat Bristol City 1-0, won against Southampton 3-2, and overcame Sheffield Wednesday 1-0. The last head-to-head meeting on February 22, 2025, ended with a 1-0 victory for Millwall.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in Derby County vs Millwall

In terms of scoring, Derby County shows a high average: 3.6 goals per game over their last five matches, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2 goals on average. Millwall plays more conservatively, with an average of 2.6 goals per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2. In Derby County's last five matches, the total over 2.5 occurred in all 5 games. For Millwall, this happened in 2 out of 5, with 3 out of 5 being low-scoring. In terms of halves, Derby County had 2 out of 5 games with two or more goals in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second half. Millwall had only 1 out of 5 over 1.5 goals in the first half and 2 out of 5 in the second. Derby County most frequently scores between 61-75 minutes (43%) and concedes in two periods: 0-15 and 31-45 minutes at 27% each. Millwall is most productive in the final minutes (76-90, 38%) and concedes most often from 46 to 60 minutes (40%). Considering Derby County's high scoring rate, the over 2.5 total in each of their last 5 matches, and their strong second half performances, betting on over 2.5 goals at 2.42 seems justified.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

For corners, Derby County averages 5.6 per match, Millwall 6.6, totaling 12.2. In the last five matches, both teams had 3 out of 5 games with a total over 9.5 corners. The closest available total to the average is 10.5: over 10.5 corners is priced at 2.12, under 10.5 at 1.64. Derby County is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.75. Given the average corner activity of both teams, considering a bet on over 10.5 corners and favoring Derby County in this aspect seems logical.