Prediction for match Derby County — Oxford United

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the English Championship on April 18, Derby County will face Oxford United. Derby County is favored with odds of 1.89 to win, a draw is priced at 3.44, and Oxford United's victory is at 4.04. Looking at the probability percentages from the odds, Derby County has a 49.57% chance, a draw is at 27.24%, and Oxford United's chance is 23.19%. Derby County stands out as the favorite in this matchup according to the main betting lines. Odds for total goals: Over 2.5 is at 2.00, Under 2.5 is at 1.78. Both teams to score: Yes - 1.83, No - 1.87. Individual team totals: Derby County Over 1.5 - 2.01, Oxford United Over 1 - 2.31. Double chance options: 1X - 1.22, X2 - 1.87, 12 - 1.28. For the first half: Total 1H Over 1 - 1.95, Total 1H Under 1 - 1.80. All main lines suggest a moderately scoring match profile.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last three matches, Derby County played as follows: April 11, 2026, Southampton vs Derby County 2-1, April 6, 2026, Derby County vs Stoke City 2-0, April 3, 2026, Coventry vs Derby County 3-2. Oxford United in their last three matches: April 11, 2026, Oxford United vs Watford 2-0, April 6, 2026, Portsmouth vs Oxford United 2-2, April 3, 2026, Oxford United vs Hull City 1-1. In their head-to-head on October 18, 2025, Oxford United hosted Derby County and won 1-0. In additional five-match statistics: Derby County averages 44.4% possession, registers 2.6 yellow cards, commits 14 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. Oxford United holds 38.6% possession, receives 2 yellows, commits 12 fouls, and records 1 offside. In these parameters, Derby County is slightly more active defensively and commits more fouls. In the last five matches, Derby County won twice, while Oxford United had one win, three draws, and one loss. Overall, both teams show consistent competitiveness and create scoring opportunities.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of goals, both teams show similar figures: average total goals over 5 matches is 2.4 for both. Derby County scores 1.4 and concedes 1.0, while Oxford United scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2. For over 2.5 goals: Derby County has 2 out of 5 matches over, while Oxford United has 1 out of 5 over. For over 1.5 goals in the first half: Derby County has 1 out of 5, Oxford United has 2 out of 5. In the second half, over 1.5 goals occurred for Derby County 3 times, Oxford United 2 times out of 5. Goal intervals: Derby County often scores between 61-75 minutes (38%), while Oxford United scores in the first 15 minutes (50%). For conceded goals: Derby County is most vulnerable between 31-45 minutes (50%), Oxford United in the final 76-90 minutes (50%). Overall, the match appears moderately scoring, but both teams are not inclined to frequent over 2.5 goals. A bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.78 seems justified: both teams have three out of five matches under, average goal figures do not exceed 2.4, and over 2.5 occurrences are not dominant. Also, there is no strong over-profile by halves, further supporting the choice of an under total.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

For the average number of corners over 5 matches: Derby County - 3.2, Oxford United - 4.4. In total, this is 7.6 corners per game. For over 9.5 corners: Derby County has 1 out of 5, Oxford United has 3 out of 5. Among the odds for total corners, there is a pair for 9.5: over 9.5 - 1.55, under 9.5 - 2.26. For the outcome on corners, the favorite is Derby County (1.27). On average, the teams do not exceed 8-9 corners, so a bet on under 9.5 corners seems logical, considering average values and occurrence frequencies. Oxford United more often exceeds 9.5, but Derby County tends to lower figures. Overall, the match does not promise a large number of set pieces, and a bet on a lower total for corners seems justified.