Prediction for match Derby County — Sheffield Wednesday

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the English Championship on March 7, Derby County will face Sheffield Wednesday. The odds clearly favor Derby County: their victory is priced at 1.24, a draw at 5.65, and a Sheffield Wednesday win at 12.00. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 75.60% for a Derby County win, 16.59% for a draw, and only 7.81% for a Sheffield Wednesday victory. These figures confirm Derby County's status as favorites, with a significant gap in percentages between the teams. In this situation, bookmakers give Sheffield Wednesday almost no chance, betting on a confident result for Derby County.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Derby County has an average ball possession of 47.4%, receives 2.4 yellow cards, commits 10.4 fouls, and is caught offside 1.2 times per game. Sheffield Wednesday's possession is noticeably lower at 37.8%, with the same 2.4 yellow cards, slightly more fouls at 11.2, and 2.2 offsides. Derby County's last three matches: 02/28/2026 - Derby County vs Blackburn Rovers 3-1, 02/24/2026 - Hull City vs Derby County 4-2, 02/21/2026 - Watford vs Derby County 2-0. Sheffield Wednesday's last three games: 02/28/2026 - Sheffield Wednesday vs Southampton 1-3, 02/25/2026 - Norwich City vs Sheffield Wednesday 2-0, 02/22/2026 - Sheffield United vs Sheffield Wednesday 2-1. In their last head-to-head on 12/15/2025, Sheffield Wednesday lost to Derby County 0-3.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Derby County has an average of 3.4 goals per game, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8. Sheffield Wednesday's average total is 3.2, but the difference between goals scored and conceded is stark: 0.6 scored against 2.6 conceded. For over 2.5 goals, Derby County had 3 out of 5 games go over, while Sheffield Wednesday had 4 out of 5. In the first half, Derby County exceeded 1.5 goals only once in five games, while Sheffield Wednesday did so three times. In the second half, Derby County exceeded 1.5 goals four times, Sheffield Wednesday three times. For goal intervals: Derby County most often scores between 61-75 minutes (33%), and concedes between 31-45 minutes (40%). Sheffield Wednesday's goals are spread across different intervals: 16-30, 31-45, 46-60, 76-90 - 20% each, while most conceded goals occur between 61-75 minutes (50%). Considering Derby County's high scoring and Sheffield Wednesday's weak defense, looking at over 2.5 goals at 1.65 as the main bet is logical.

Betting on Corners

Derby County averages 3.2 corners per game, Sheffield Wednesday 4. For over 9.5 corners, Derby County had 2 out of 5, Sheffield Wednesday 3 out of 5. The closest total to the average corners is 7.5, but there is a market for over 9.5 corners: over 9.5 is priced at 2.10, under 9.5 at 1.70. No clear winner on corners, as the teams' averages are close. Betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified, considering the frequency and overall dynamics of recent matches.