Prediction for match Derby County — Swansea

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

On February 14, 2026, Derby County will face Swansea City in the Championship. Bookmakers are offering odds of 2.22 for a Derby County win, 3.14 for a draw, and 3.34 for a Swansea City victory. In terms of probabilities: Derby County - 42.16%, draw - 29.81%, Swansea City - 28.03%. Both teams are in good form, but the odds favor Derby County as the favorite. Swansea City has been slightly more productive in recent matches, but Derby County consistently earns points and concedes few goals.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Derby County averages 48% possession, receives 3 yellow cards, commits 12.6 fouls, and is caught offside 2 times per game. Swansea City shows 55.2% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 9 fouls, and 2.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Derby County: 07.02.2026 - Derby County - Ipswich Town - 1-2, 30.01.2026 - Bristol City - Derby County - 0-5, 23.01.2026 - Derby County - West Bromwich - 1-1. Swansea City: 08.02.2026 - Swansea City - Sheffield Wednesday - 4-0, 31.01.2026 - Watford - Swansea City - 0-2, 24.01.2026 - Hull City - Swansea City - 2-1. The last head-to-head meeting was on 25.11.2025: Swansea City - Derby County - 1-2.

Goal Scoring Streaks

In their last five matches, Derby County has an average total of 2.8 goals, scoring 2 and conceding 0.8 per game. Swansea City is slightly higher with 3 goals on average, scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8. For over 2.5 goals: both teams have 3 out of 5 matches over. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred once for Derby County and twice for Swansea City. In the second half, both teams played over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches. By intervals: Derby County most often scores between the 61st and 75th minute (67%), Swansea City between the 16th and 30th minute (40%). Derby County most often concedes between the 76th and 90th minute (36%), Swansea City between the 46th and 60th minute (40%). Considering the average scoring, over 2.5 goals for both teams, and stable scoring figures, a bet on over 2.5 goals seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Derby County averages 3 corners per match, Swansea City - 6.4. In 5 matches, Derby County exceeded a total of 9.5 corners twice, Swansea City four times. The optimal line to consider is a corner total of 9.5: over 9.5 is at 1.73, under 9.5 at 1.99. In the corner outcome, Derby County is favored with odds of 1.80. Swansea City consistently delivers many corners, while Derby County often limits themselves to a smaller number, making a bet on over 9.5 corners logical. It's also worth noting that Swansea City regularly creates chances through the wings, contributing to the number of corners.