Prediction for match Estrela — Arouca

Odds and Probability Percentages

In the Primeira Liga on December 7, Estrela will face Arouca. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: Estrela win at 2.30, draw at 3.33, and Arouca win at 3.38. In terms of probability percentages, Estrela has 42.17%, draw - 29.13%, Arouca - 28.70%. Based on these numbers, Estrela appears to be the favorite, but the difference between the teams is not significant, which adds intrigue to the upcoming match. For goal totals, over 2.5 goals is at 2.16, while under 2.5 is at 1.76, indicating expectations of a high-scoring game.

Team Results and Statistics

In terms of ball possession, Estrela averages 51.4% over the last 5 games, while Arouca averages 44%. Estrela averages 2.4 yellow cards per match, Arouca 3. Both teams are close in terms of fouls: 15.2 for Estrela and 15 for Arouca, with offsides at 1.6 and 1.2 respectively. In their last three matches, Estrela played as follows: 30.11.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Estrela 4-0, 09.11.2025 Estrela - Nacional 1-1, 01.11.2025 Casa Pia - Estrela 3-5. Arouca's last three matches were: 01.12.2025 Arouca - Braga 0-4, 07.11.2025 Estoril - Arouca 4-3, 02.11.2025 Arouca - Moreirense 0-2. In their last head-to-head on 19.04.2025, Arouca defeated Estrela 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Estrela averages 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, while Arouca averages 0.8 goals scored and 3.2 conceded. Both teams have played over 2.5 goals in 3 out of their last 5 games. Estrela also recorded over 1.5 goals in the first half three times, Arouca four out of five. In the second half, Estrela went over 1.5 goals twice, Arouca three times. On average, Estrela matches have 3.8 goals, Arouca's 4. Estrela most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minutes (25%), while Arouca scores most often between the 46th and 60th minutes (30%). Estrela concedes most between the 31st-45th and 61st-75th minutes (38% each), Arouca between the 31st-45th minutes (36%). These figures suggest a trend towards high-scoring matches for both teams, especially considering both have gone over 2.5 goals in three of their last five matches. Estrela has a higher average of goals scored, while Arouca concedes significantly more. This supports a bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.16.

Corner Totals Analysis

Estrela averages 3.2 corners per game, Arouca 2.4. In the last five matches, Estrela has only gone over 9.5 corners once, while Arouca has done so three times. The total closest to their combined average (5.6) is 8.5 corners: over 8.5 is at 1.53, under 8.5 at 2.25. Estrela is the favorite for corners at 1.80. Given the low average corner stats and low frequency of over 9.5 corners for Estrela, a bet on under 9.5 or 10 seems logical, although Arouca's stats for hitting higher totals are not definitive. Overall, the match doesn't promise a high number of corners unless there's a sudden surge in attacking activity.