Prediction for match Estrela — Porto

Match Analysis: Estrela vs. Porto

On April 26, 2026, Estrela will face Porto in a Primeira Liga clash. The 1X2 odds clearly favor Porto, with odds of 1.34 for their victory, implying a 72.34% chance of success. A draw is priced at 5.41 (17.92%), while Estrela's win is at 9.95 with a 9.74% chance. The odds reflect a significant advantage for Porto, but the goal totals are also intriguing: under 2.5 goals is at 2.03, and over is at 1.86. The both teams to score market offers no at 1.63 and yes at 2.15. There are various options for individual and half totals, but the under on the overall total seems most appealing.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Estrela lost to Arouca 0-1 (19.04.2026), Sporting Lisbon 0-1 (11.04.2026), and Nacional 0-2 (04.04.2026). Porto drew 0-0 with Sporting Lisbon (22.04.2026), defeated Tondela 2-0 (19.04.2026), and lost to Nottingham Forest 0-1 (16.04.2026). In head-to-head encounters, the last match was on December 15, 2025, when Porto beat Estrela 3-1. Over a five-match span, Estrela's secondary stats show 48.2% possession, an average of 2.2 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 2.4 offsides. Porto has 49.2% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 12.4 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. These figures suggest a fairly even battle in secondary aspects, without a clear leader in ball control or discipline.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Estrela's average total goals per game is 2.2, with the team scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.2. Porto's average total is even lower at 1.8, with 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Estrela has seen over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches, while Porto only once in 5. In the first half, more than 1.5 goals happened once for Estrela in 5 matches, and twice for Porto. Similarly, in the second half, Estrela had 1 of 5, and Porto 2 of 5 for over 1.5 goals. The most frequent goal intervals for Estrela are 0-15, 31-45, and 46-60 minutes (22% each), while for Porto it's 0-15 (33%). Estrela concedes most frequently between 46-60 and 61-75 minutes (50% each), and Porto in the first 15 minutes (50%). Neither team has a strong over-profile on totals, with under 2.5 goals prevailing: Estrela 3 out of 5, Porto 4 out of 5. This is supported by average goals and half-time frequencies. The most logical choice appears to be the under 2.5 goals option.

Corner Totals Analysis

Over the last 5 matches, Estrela averaged 4.6 corners, while Porto averaged 5.6, totaling 10.2 corners per game. In the last 5 games, Estrela surpassed 9.5 corners 3 times, and Porto did so twice. The line closest to the average is 10.5 corners: over 10.5 is at 2.67, under at 1.38. Porto is the favorite in the corner market with odds of 1.22. Considering average figures and the frequency of over 9.5 corners, betting on over 10.5 corners seems justified for this match. Individual corner totals for Porto are also worth considering, given their average of 5.6 per game.