Prediction for match Estrela — Moreirense, 20.12.2025

Odds and Probability Percentages for Match Outcome

In the Primeira Liga on December 20, Estrela will face Moreirense. The odds for Estrela to win are 2.46, for Moreirense to succeed are 3.16, and a draw is priced at 3.25. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Estrela to win 39.44%, a draw at 29.85%, and Moreirense to win 30.70%. Considering these figures, the match promises to be high-scoring, with Estrela having a slight edge as favorites.

Review of Recent Matches

In their last five matches, Estrela recorded the following results: lost to Porto 1-3 on December 15, defeated Arouca 3-1 on December 7, lost to Sporting Lisbon 0-4 on November 30, drew with Nacional 1-1 on November 9, and won against Casa Pia 5-3 on November 1. During the same period, Moreirense played as follows: lost to Benfica 0-4 on December 14, drew with Estoril 3-3 on December 7, drew with Famalicão 2-2 on November 29, lost to Braga 1-2 on November 9, and won against Arouca 2-0 on November 2. In their last head-to-head meeting on March 2, 2025, the teams played to a 1-1 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams have shown a clear over-profile in terms of goals over a span of 5 matches. Estrela's average total goals are 4.4, while Moreirense's are 3.8. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches. Estrela scores an average of 2 goals per game and concedes 2.4, while Moreirense scores 1.6 and concedes 2.2. For halves, Estrela has over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches in both the first and second halves, while Moreirense has over 1.5 goals in 2 out of 5 in the first half and 4 out of 5 in the second half. Estrela most frequently scores between the 16th-30th and 61st-75th minutes (21% each), while Moreirense scores most between the 46th-60th minute (43%). Estrela most often concedes between the 31st-45th minute (38%), and Moreirense in the final stages, from the 76th to the 90th minute (25%). Given the high scoring nature of both teams, frequent over 2.5 totals, and support across halves, betting on over 2.5 goals seems logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Regarding corners, Estrela averages 2 per match over the last 5 games, and Moreirense averages 3.8. The frequency of over 9.5 corners for both teams is 0 out of 5. The odds for corner totals are: over 8.5 at 1.84, under 8.5 at 1.91. Estrela to win the corner count is priced at 1.68. Given the low average corner count and absence of over 9.5 totals, betting on a low corner total seems justified.