Prediction for match Estrela — Nacional, 09.11.2025

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

The match between Estrela and Nacional in the Primeira Liga will take place on November 9, 2025. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: a win for Nacional is priced at 2.55, a victory for Estrela is at 2.75, and a draw is offered at 3.20. According to the percentage distribution, Estrela has a 34.04% chance, a draw is at 29.25%, and Nacional is at 36.71%. Thus, the teams approach the head-to-head clash without a clear favorite, though Nacional has the slightly higher percentage.

Team Results and Statistics

In a five-match series, Estrela averages 51.8% possession, commits 15.2 fouls, is caught offside 2.4 times, and receives 3 yellow cards per game. Nacional shows 48.2% possession, 11.8 fouls, 3.2 offsides, and 2.4 yellow cards. Estrela's last three matches: 01.11.2025 Casa Pia - Estrela 3-5, 25.10.2025 Estrela - Rio Ave 1-2, 04.10.2025 Gil Vicente - Estrela 2-0. Nacional's recent results: 01.11.2025 Nacional - Famalicão 0-1, 26.10.2025 Estoril - Nacional 1-1, 04.10.2025 Nacional - Moreirense 3-2. In their last head-to-head on 06.04.2025, Nacional - Estrela ended 0-1, with under 2.5 goals. Matches between these teams are often closely contested, as evidenced by several narrow wins and goalless results.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In Estrela's last five matches, the total over 2.5 was recorded three times, and under twice. For Nacional, the total over 2.5 occurred twice, under three times. Estrela's average goals for and against is 3.2 per game, while Nacional's is 2.4. In terms of goals scored: Estrela averages 1.8, Nacional 1.2. In terms of goals conceded: Estrela 1.4, Nacional 1.2. In the first half, Estrela had 3 out of 5 games with two or more goals, while Nacional had only 1 out of 5. In the second half, both teams had 2 out of 5 matches with a total over 1.5. Estrela most frequently scores between 31-45 minutes (40%), and Nacional between 46-60 (40%). Meanwhile, Estrela most often concedes between 61-75 minutes (43%), and Nacional in two intervals: 0-15 and 31-45 (29% each). Overall, the statistics suggest potentially moderate scoring, but leaning towards over 2.5 goals: Estrela's attacking style is evidenced by their series of 5: 3 times over 2.5 goals, a high average goal count, and decent scoring by halves. Therefore, it makes sense to choose over 2.5 goals at 2.15.

Corners in the Match

Estrela averages 4.2 corners per game, Nacional 3.2. In the last 5 matches, Estrela surpassed the total corners over 9.5 twice, under three times; Nacional had the same frequency: 2 out of 5 over 9.5. The overall line for total corners over 9.5 is at 1.73, under 9.5 at 2.00. The favorite for corners is Estrela with odds of 1.95. Based on the average activity of both teams and the frequency of outcomes, a bet on total corners over 9.5 seems justified, but the under 9.5 option cannot be ruled out, considering both teams do not always reach high figures in this component.