Prediction for match Estrela — Tondela, 20.02.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Primeira Liga on February 20, Estrela will face Tondela. According to the 1X2 odds, Estrela is the favorite: their victory is priced at 2.68, which corresponds to a 36.14% probability. Tondela's win is set at 2.90 (33.40%), and a draw is at 3.18 (30.46%). The percentages are quite balanced, but Estrela has a slight edge. This balance of odds suggests that bookmakers do not see a clear dominance from either side, although Estrela is slightly more favored in expectations. It's important to note that the odds for over 2.5 goals are 2.38, while under 2.5 goals is at 1.64, indicating a tendency towards a low-scoring game.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Estrela has an average possession of 41.4%, receives 2.8 yellow cards, commits 18 fouls, and has 1.4 offsides per game. Tondela's stats are slightly lower: 37.8% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 15.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Estrela played as follows: February 14 - Vitória Guimarães 2-1 Estrela, February 7 - Estrela 1-0 Santa Clara, January 31 - Alverca 1-1 Estrela. During the same period, Tondela's matches were: February 13 - Tondela 1-1 Alverca, February 7 - Estoril 2-2 Tondela, February 1 - Tondela 0-0 Benfica. In their last head-to-head on September 21, 2025, it ended goalless: Tondela 0-0 Estrela.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five games, Estrela's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 3 times out of 5, while Tondela's have done so 2 out of 5. The average number of goals in Estrela's matches is 3, and for Tondela, it's 2. Both teams score 0.6 goals per game, but Estrela concedes significantly more - 2.4 compared to Tondela's 1.4. In the first half, Estrela never surpassed over 1.5 goals, while Tondela did so once in 5 games. In the second half, Estrela recorded over 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches, Tondela in 2 out of 5. Regarding goal intervals, Estrela most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minute (38%), while Tondela scores towards the end, from the 76th to the 90th minute (43%). Estrela concedes most often in three different segments: 0-15, 46-60, and 61-75 minutes (29% each), while Tondela concedes early (0-15 minutes, 50%). Despite occasional bursts of scoring in the second half, both teams generally have low attacking productivity and rarely exceed the over 2.5 goals total. Considering this data, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.64 seems logical: both teams rarely score, and Tondela is quite solid defensively.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Estrela averages 1.8 corners per game, while Tondela averages 4.2. Over a five-match span, the total corners over 9.5 occurred 2 times out of 5 for both teams. Among corner totals, the line closest to the sum of average figures (6) is 7.5: over 7.5 is priced at 1.27, under at 3.14. One could also consider a total of 8.5: over 8.5 is at 1.51, under at 2.29. In terms of corner outcomes, Estrela is favored with odds of 1.99. Given Estrela's low activity in corner kicks and Tondela's moderate level, a bet on over 7.5 corners seems justified, but don't expect a large number of corners.