Prediction for match Excelsior — Ajax, 01.02.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Eredivisie on February 1st, Excelsior will face Ajax. The odds for an Ajax win are 1.81, a draw is 4.01, and an Excelsior win is 4.16. Ajax has a 53.01% chance of winning, Excelsior 23.06%, and a draw is estimated at 23.93%. Ajax is the favorite according to both the odds and probabilities, which is also supported by their recent scoring statistics. Both teams have a high total number of goals over the last 5 matches, which could influence betting choices.

Team Statistics and Scores

In their last five matches, Excelsior has an average possession of 47%, with 1.4 yellow cards, 10 fouls, and 1 offside per game. Ajax, over the same period, maintains 60.2% possession, receives 1.2 yellow cards, commits 10.4 fouls, and is caught offside 0.6 times per match. Excelsior's recent results: 24.01.2026 - Twente vs Excelsior 0-0, 21.01.2026 - AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior 1-1, 17.01.2026 - Excelsior vs Telstar 2-2. Ajax's recent results: 28.01.2026 - Ajax vs Olympiacos 1-2, 24.01.2026 - Ajax vs Volendam 2-0, 20.01.2026 - Villarreal vs Ajax 1-2. Their last head-to-head meeting was on 22.11.2025: Ajax vs Excelsior 1-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams tend to play high-scoring matches. Excelsior's average total goals in the last five matches is 3, while Ajax's is 3.6. In the last 5 games, Excelsior had over 2.5 goals in 3 matches, and Ajax in 4. In the second half, Excelsior had over 1.5 goals three times, and Ajax four times. In the first half, Excelsior had over 1.5 goals only once, while Ajax had it three times. Excelsior most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (30%) and concedes between the 46th and 60th minutes (60%). Ajax's most frequent scoring intervals are 0-15 and 31-45 minutes (25% each), with conceded goals evenly distributed across three segments of the second half (33% each). Both clubs regularly score and concede, supporting the bet on both teams to score: yes. The odds for both teams to score: yes is 1.51, and considering the goal and total statistics, this option seems most logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Excelsior averages 4 corners per match, Ajax 4.8. In the last 5 games, Excelsior had over 9.5 corners 3 times, Ajax 2 times. Among corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (8.8) is 8.5: over 8.5 corners is at 1.44, under 8.5 is at 2.47. Ajax is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.66. Based on the average corner activity and the frequency of over 9.5 corners, betting on over 8.5 corners seems justified. Individual corner totals for each team can also be considered, based on their average values.