Prediction for match Excelsior — AZ Alkmaar, 14.02.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

The match between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie is scheduled for 14.02.2026. The odds for an AZ Alkmaar win are 2.03, for an Excelsior win 3.45, and for a draw 3.86. In terms of probability percentages: 47.30% for AZ Alkmaar to win, 27.83% for Excelsior, and 24.87% for a draw. The odds suggest that AZ Alkmaar is favored, but the gap isn't significant, and Excelsior can put up a fight. The most interesting odds on totals: Over 2.5 goals is at 1.66, and Both Teams to Score: Yes is at 1.53.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Excelsior beat NAC Breda 2-0, drew 2-2 with Ajax, and had a goalless draw with Twente. AZ Alkmaar, in their last three games, drew 1-1 with Ajax, defeated Twente 2-1, and lost to NEC Nijmegen 1-3. In their head-to-head match on 21.01.2026, the teams drew 1-1. Over a five-match period: Excelsior had 47.2% average possession, received 1.6 yellow cards, committed 11.4 fouls, and recorded 1 offside per game. AZ Alkmaar averaged 47.6% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 12.2 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. These stats suggest a fairly balanced style of play, with a slight discipline edge for Excelsior.

Goal Scoring Trends

In terms of scoring over the last five matches, both teams have an average total of 2.4 goals per game. Excelsior scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 1 goal, while AZ Alkmaar scored and conceded 1.2 goals on average. For matches with over 2.5 goals: both teams had 2 out of 5 games go over and 3 out of 5 go under. In the first half, Excelsior had 2 out of 5 games with over 1.5 goals, AZ Alkmaar had 1 out of 5. In the second half, Excelsior went over 1.5 in 3 out of 5, AZ Alkmaar in 2 out of 5. In terms of goal intervals: Excelsior most frequently scores between 61-75 minutes (60%), and concedes between 16-60 minutes (29% in each of the three intervals). AZ Alkmaar scores most frequently in four different intervals at 25% each: 0-15, 31-45, 46-60, and 61-75 minutes, and concedes most often at the end (76-90 minutes - 43%). Overall, both teams show moderate scoring tendencies, but with a trend towards more activity in the second half. Against this background, a bet on both teams to score: yes at 1.53 seems justified, given that both teams regularly score and concede, and the over 2.5 total was seen in 2 out of 5 games for both.

Corner Betting

Average corners over five matches: Excelsior - 4, AZ Alkmaar - 3.6. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners: Excelsior hit it 3 times out of 5, AZ Alkmaar 1 time out of 5. For the total corners of 8.5, both outcomes are available: over 8.5 is at 1.46, under 8.5 at 2.41. For the outcome on corners, AZ Alkmaar is favored with odds of 1.85. Considering the average delivery activity and the frequency of over 9.5 corners for Excelsior, a bet on over 8.5 corners seems logical. It’s also worth noting that neither team has a strong bias towards corners, making the game quite open in this aspect.