Prediction for match Fagiano Okayama — V-varen Nagasaki

Odds and Probability of Match Outcome

In the J1 League of Japan, Fagiano Okayama will face V-Varen Nagasaki on 21.03.2026. The odds for a Fagiano Okayama win are 2.20, for a V-Varen Nagasaki victory are 3.16, and for a draw are 3.36. The probability percentages are as follows: Fagiano Okayama - 42.54%, draw - 27.85%, V-Varen Nagasaki - 29.61%. Among the available options, the over 2.5 goals total at odds of 1.99 is particularly interesting, considering both teams' scoring profiles and their recent tendency to exceed this total in matches.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Fagiano Okayama displayed average possession stats at 43.6%, received 1 yellow card, committed 15 fouls, and had 2.4 offsides per game. V-Varen Nagasaki appears slightly more disciplined with 45.6% possession, 0.6 yellow cards, 7.8 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. Recent matches for Fagiano Okayama: 18.03.2026 - Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Fagiano Okayama, 14.03.2026 - Shimizu S-Pulse 5-3 Fagiano Okayama, 08.03.2026 - Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Kyoto Sanga. For V-Varen Nagasaki: 18.03.2026 - V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Kyoto Sanga, 15.03.2026 - V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka, 08.03.2026 - Gamba Osaka 3-2 V-Varen Nagasaki. In their last head-to-head on 29.09.2024, Fagiano Okayama defeated V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Fagiano Okayama had two games with over 2.5 goals and three with under, while V-Varen Nagasaki had three with over and two with under. The average goal count in Fagiano Okayama's matches is 2.2, and for V-Varen Nagasaki, it's 2.8. In terms of scoring: Fagiano Okayama averages 1.2 goals, V-Varen Nagasaki 1.6, with 1 and 1.2 conceded respectively. Both teams have seen over 1.5 goals in the first and second halves twice in their last five games. Fagiano Okayama frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (40%), while V-Varen Nagasaki does so in the same period (43%). Conceding patterns for Fagiano Okayama are prominent in the 31-45 and 76-90 intervals (33% each), and for V-Varen Nagasaki in the 16-30 and 76-90 intervals (29% each). Overall, both teams tend to have action-packed endings and lack a rock-solid defense, making the over 2.5 goals bet at 1.99 a logical choice.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Fagiano Okayama averages 7 corners per match, while V-Varen Nagasaki averages 4.2. In the last five matches, Fagiano Okayama had three games with over 9.5 corners, and V-Varen Nagasaki had four. The closest total to their combined average (11.2) is 11, with the options of over 11 corners at 2.34 and under 11 at 1.53. Fagiano Okayama is favored for the corner outcome with odds of 1.54. Considering both teams' corner stats, betting on over 11 corners seems justified for this match.