Prediction for match Basel — Lugano, 09.11.2025

Match Analysis: Basel vs Lugano

The Swiss Super League continues on November 9th with Basel hosting Lugano, kick-off at 16:00 Moscow time. The odds for the match favor Basel as the favorite, with a win priced at 1.70, a draw at 4.00, and a Lugano victory at 4.20. The probability distribution for the outcomes is as follows: Basel - 54.65%, draw - 23.23%, Lugano - 22.12%. Given these assessments, it's expected that Basel will be more aggressive in attack, but Lugano is capable of providing serious competition.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Basel has an average ball possession of 54%, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 11.4 fouls, and is caught offside 2.2 times per game. Lugano slightly leads with 55% possession, 12.6 fouls, 2.4 offsides, and receives 1.6 yellow cards on average. In Basel's last three matches, the results were: November 6th - Basel 3-1 FCSB, November 2nd - Young Boys 0-0 Basel, October 29th - Basel 2-0 Zurich. During the same period, Lugano played as follows: October 30th - Lugano 2-0 Luzern, October 26th - Servette 2-1 Lugano, October 18th - Lugano 1-0 Zurich. In their head-to-head on August 10th, Lugano won 3-1 at home - the over 2.5 goals bet was successful.

Goals by Match Statistics

In Basel's last five matches, the over 2.5 goals bet was successful twice, while the under was hit three times. For Lugano, the over was successful three times and the under twice. In terms of halves, Basel had only one first half with two or more goals, but the second half had two such instances. Lugano had one first-half over and three second-half overs out of five matches. Average goals over the last five matches: Basel - 2.8 goals per game, Lugano - 3.0. Basel scores 1.2 and concedes 1.6; Lugano scores 2 and concedes 1. Basel often scores in the first 15 minutes (25%), while Lugano scores most frequently between the 46th and 60th minutes (33%). Basel concedes most often in the second half: 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (50% each), while Lugano concedes most between the 61st and 75th minutes (67%). Considering these stats, a bet on both teams to score: yes seems justified - both teams have regularly found the net recently, with average goal tallies between 2.8 and 3, and Lugano consistently scores after the break. The odds for both teams to score: yes is 1.53.

Corner Totals Analysis

Basel is notably more active in terms of corners: over the last five matches, they average 5 corners, while Lugano averages 2.6. In Basel's last five matches, the total corners over 9.5 occurred twice, as did Lugano's. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.83, the same as for under 9.5. Basel is favored in corner outcome betting with odds of 1.50. A logical bet based on statistics would be Basel's advantage in corners, as well as considering the over 9.5 total as a likely outcome, given both teams' attacking models in recent matches.