Prediction for match St. Pauli — Bayern

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Bundesliga on April 11, 2026, St. Pauli will face Bayern. The odds clearly favor Bayern: a win for St. Pauli is at 8.80, a draw is valued at 5.54, and a Bayern victory is at 1.39. Looking at the probabilities, St. Pauli has an 11.21% chance, a draw is at 17.81%, and Bayern is at 70.98%. This confirms Bayern's status as the favorite, while St. Pauli faces a tough challenge against one of the top teams in German football.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, St. Pauli played as follows: April 5 - Union Berlin vs. St. Pauli 1-1, March 22 - St. Pauli vs. Freiburg 1-2, March 13 - Borussia M vs. St. Pauli 2-0. Bayern's last three matches were: April 7 - Real Madrid vs. Bayern 1-2, April 4 - Freiburg vs. Bayern 2-3, March 21 - Bayern vs. Union Berlin 4-0. The last meeting between these teams was on November 29, 2025, when Bayern defeated St. Pauli 3-1. Over a five-match span, St. Pauli averages 43.6% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 8.8 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. Bayern averages 65.6% possession, 2 yellow cards, 9.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. This highlights the difference in style and level of ball control between the teams.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In St. Pauli's last five matches, the over 2.5 goals bet came in only once, while the under 2.5 hit four times. Bayern shows the opposite trend: 4 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals, and only once was it under. St. Pauli averages 0.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, with a total average of 1.6 goals per match. Bayern's averages are significantly higher: 2.8 goals scored, 1 conceded, and 3.8 total goals per match. St. Pauli never exceeded 1.5 goals in the first half over the last five matches, and only once exceeded 1.5 in the second half. Bayern exceeded 1.5 goals in the first half only once out of five, but did so four times in the second half. St. Pauli most frequently scores between the 16th-30th, 31st-45th, 46th-60th, and 61st-75th minutes (all 25%), and concedes evenly but with a focus on the second half. Bayern most often scores between the 46th and 75th minutes (33% in each interval) and concedes mainly in the final minutes (76th-90th - 57%). Given Bayern's high scoring and frequent over 2.5 totals, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.46 appears logical for this match.

Corner Totals Analysis

St. Pauli averages 3.2 corners per game, while Bayern averages 7.4. For over 9.5 corners: St. Pauli hit this mark in 2 out of 5 matches, and Bayern in 3 out of 5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.71, and under is 2.02. Bayern is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.20. Considering both teams collectively average around 10.6 corners per match, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified. Also, Bayern's advantage in corners, given their average and favorite status, could be worth considering.