Prediction for match St. Pauli — Mainz 05

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Bundesliga on May 3, St. Pauli will face Mainz 05. The odds for a Mainz 05 victory are 2.70, St. Pauli is at 2.85, and a draw is priced at 3.40. Probability percentages are as follows: St. Pauli 34.56%, draw 28.97%, Mainz 05 36.48%. Based on the odds and probabilities, Mainz 05 is slightly favored, but there is no clear favorite.

Team Results and Statistics

St. Pauli's last three matches were: April 25, 2026, Heidenheim vs. St. Pauli 2-0, April 17, 2026, St. Pauli vs. Cologne 1-1, April 11, 2026, St. Pauli vs. Bayern 0-5. Mainz 05's recent results were: April 25, 2026, Mainz 05 vs. Bayern 3-4, April 19, 2026, Borussia M vs. Mainz 05 1-1, April 16, 2026, Strasbourg vs. Mainz 05 4-0. Over the last five games, St. Pauli averaged 44.2% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 7.4 fouls, and 2.6 offsides per match. Mainz 05 showed 43% possession, 1.2 yellow cards, 11.8 fouls, and 1.6 offsides in the same period. Their last head-to-head was on December 21, 2025: Mainz 05 vs. St. Pauli 0-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, St. Pauli averaged 2.8 goals per game, while Mainz 05 averaged 3.2. St. Pauli scored an average of 0.6 and conceded 2.2, while Mainz 05 scored 1.2 and conceded 2. Regarding over 2.5 goals: both teams had 2 out of 5 matches over and 3 under. In the first half, St. Pauli had no matches over 1.5 goals, while Mainz 05 had 3 out of 5. In the second half, St. Pauli had 3 out of 5 over 1.5 goals, Mainz 05 had 2 out of 5. St. Pauli scored evenly across five different intervals at 20%, while Mainz 05 scored most frequently in the 0-15, 16-30, and 61-75 minute intervals (27% each). St. Pauli conceded most often in the 76-90 minute interval (33%), Mainz 05 also conceded frequently at the end (76-90, 50%). Overall, neither team is highly prolific, and St. Pauli scores few goals. Therefore, under 2.5 goals seems a logical choice, considering St. Pauli's low scoring and Mainz 05's unimpressive attacking form in recent matches.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

St. Pauli averaged 4.4 corners per game, Mainz 05 averaged 5.2. For over 9.5 total corners: both teams had 2 out of 5 matches over and 3 under. The total closest to their averages is 9.5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.99, under 9.5 is 1.73. St. Pauli is favored for corners with odds of 2.00. Considering both teams' averages and moderate frequency of going over 9.5, betting on over 9.5 total corners seems justified, but no significant advantage is apparent.