Prediction for match St. Pauli — Freiburg

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Bundesliga on March 22, St. Pauli will face Freiburg. Bookmakers see this as a very balanced match-up: St. Pauli's win is priced at 2.84, Freiburg's victory at 2.89, and a draw at 3.14. In terms of probability, St. Pauli has a 34.64% chance, Freiburg 34.04%, and a draw 31.33%. These odds suggest no clear favorite, indicating a potentially unpredictable match. A compelling betting option is the over 2.0 goals total, offered at 1.68.

Team Results and Statistics

St. Pauli has averaged 0.6 goals per game in their last five matches, conceding 1.4, with an average possession of 39.4%. They receive 1.8 yellow cards per match, commit 8.2 fouls, and are caught offside 2.2 times. Freiburg, over the same period, scores 1.6 goals, concedes 1.6, maintains 50.6% possession, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 9.2 fouls, and has 1.6 offsides. In their last five matches, St. Pauli played: March 13 - Borussia Mönchengladbach vs St. Pauli 2-0, March 8 - St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0, February 28 - Hoffenheim vs St. Pauli 0-1. Freiburg's matches were: March 19 - Freiburg vs Genk 5-1, March 15 - Freiburg vs Union Berlin 0-1, March 12 - Genk vs Freiburg 1-0. In their last head-to-head on November 9, 2025, Freiburg defeated St. Pauli 2-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, St. Pauli saw over 2.5 goals in two games, and under in three. Freiburg had the same pattern: two games over, three under. For halves, St. Pauli had over 1.5 goals once in the first half and twice in the second. Freiburg saw over 1.5 goals twice in the first half and three times in the second. St. Pauli's average total goals is 2, while Freiburg's is 3.2, indicating higher scoring games involving Freiburg. St. Pauli scores 25% of their goals in the 0-15, 46-60, and 61-75 minute intervals, conceding most frequently in the 31-45 and 61-75 minute intervals (50% each). Freiburg scores most often in the 16-30 and 76-90 minute intervals (27% each), conceding most frequently in the 31-45 minute period (60%). Given this data, betting on over 2.0 goals seems justified: St. Pauli has occasional scoring bursts, and Freiburg consistently maintains a high goal-scoring level both offensively and defensively. Together, both teams are capable of securing at least two goals, with the potential for more if the game unfolds favorably.

Analysis of Corner Totals

St. Pauli averages 3 corners in their last five matches, while Freiburg averages 5.4. For the over 9.5 corners total: St. Pauli hit this mark three times out of five, Freiburg twice. Among the corner total options, the line of 8.5 seems closest to the average total (8.4): over 8.5 corners is priced at 1.70, under 8.5 at 2.03. St. Pauli is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.87. Considering Freiburg's active approach in delivering corners and frequent overs on the 9.5 total, betting on over 8.5 corners appears logical. Individual team corner stats can also be considered, particularly if Freiburg continues their attacking style.