Prediction for match St. Pauli — Union Berlin, 23.11.2025

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

The Bundesliga match between St. Pauli and Union Berlin will take place on November 23, 2025. The odds for a St. Pauli win are 2.55, for Union Berlin - 3.06, and a draw is at 3.37. The probabilities are distributed as follows: St. Pauli win - 38.61%, draw - 29.22%, Union Berlin win - 32.17%. Based on the odds and percentages, St. Pauli has a slight edge, but Union Berlin is also highly rated. The odds for the main outcomes demonstrate a moderate balance between the opponents.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five games, St. Pauli has had an average ball possession of 47%, received 2.6 yellow cards, committed 10.8 fouls, and been caught offside 3.2 times per match. For Union Berlin, these figures are: possession 39.4%, 3.2 yellow cards, 14.6 fouls, and 2.8 offsides. St. Pauli's last three matches: November 9 - Freiburg 2-1 St. Pauli, November 1 - St. Pauli 0-4 Borussia M, October 28 - St. Pauli 10-9 Hoffenheim. Union Berlin: November 8 - Union Berlin 2-2 Bayern, November 1 - Union Berlin 0-0 Freiburg, October 29 - Union Berlin 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld. In their head-to-head on January 26, 2025, St. Pauli defeated Union Berlin 3-0 - the total over 2.5 was achieved.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the five-match series, St. Pauli played over 2.5 goals four times, Union Berlin three times out of five. By halves, St. Pauli had only one out of five games over 1.5 goals in the first half, but three over 1.5 in the second. Union Berlin, on the other hand, had three out of five over 1.5 in the first half, only one over in the second. On average, St. Pauli scores 0.6 and concedes 2.6, while Union Berlin scores 1.4 and concedes 1 per match. St. Pauli most frequently scores in the 31-45 (40%) and 46-60 (40%) minute intervals, while Union Berlin scores evenly across three different segments at 29% each. For goals conceded: St. Pauli most often in the 46-60 (33%) interval, Union Berlin - 31-45 (50%). Despite St. Pauli having four out of five games over 2.5, they have low scoring efficiency (0.6 goals per match) and frequently concede goals. Union Berlin concedes few and scores consistently but not excessively. Given the odds of 1.77 for total under 2.5 and Union Berlin's average scoring, a bet on total under 2.5 seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

St. Pauli averages 6.2 corners over 5 games, Union Berlin - 6.8. St. Pauli exceeded the total over 9.5 corners three times out of five, Union Berlin - five out of five. The line for total corners over 9 is at 1.65, under 9 - at 2.15. For the outcome on corners, St. Pauli is favored with odds of 1.58. Union Berlin consistently achieves a high number of corners, so a bet on total over 9 corners seems logical. Additionally, both teams actively use the flanks and frequently earn corners, as evidenced by their average values over the last five matches.