Prediction for match Thun — Luzern, 06.12.2025

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Swiss Super League on December 6, Thun will face Luzern. The odds for a Thun win are 2.11, for Luzern 3.12, and for a draw 3.65. In terms of percentages: Thun is rated at 44.36%, a draw at 25.64%, and Luzern at 30%. The odds for a Thun victory are the lowest, but the gap between the teams isn't significant, as reflected in the probability distribution. The match promises to be intriguing in terms of the battle for points, as there isn't a clear favorite according to the odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Thun has three wins and two losses: Lausanne - Thun 2-1, Thun - Lugano 0-1, Servette - Thun 0-1, Thun - Sion 2-1, Thun - Winterthur 3-0. During the same period, Luzern has secured two wins, suffered two losses, and drawn once: Luzern - Winterthur 1-3, Luzern - Servette 2-2, Zurich - Luzern 3-2, Luzern - Grasshopper 6-0, Lugano - Luzern 2-0. Their last head-to-head encounter was on August 9, 2025: Luzern - Thun 1-2. In secondary statistics over the five-match span: Thun has 43% ball possession, averages 2.4 yellow cards, 13.4 fouls, and 2 offsides. Luzern has 50% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 11.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. These figures suggest that Luzern plays slightly more cautiously and controls the ball more often, but the difference isn't critical.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of scoring, Luzern stands out: over five matches, their average total goals per game is 4.2, while Thun's is 2.2. Luzern scores 2.2 and concedes 2, Thun scores 1.4 and concedes 0.8. In a five-match series, Thun has three games over 2.5 total goals, while Luzern has four. By halves, Thun has three first halves over 1.5, while all five second halves were under. Luzern has four first halves over 1.5 and all five second halves over 1.5. By intervals: Thun most often scores between the 16th-30th and 31st-45th minutes (29% each), and concedes late (76th-90th, 40%). Luzern is most prolific from the 61st to 75th minute (36% of goals) and concedes in the same interval (43%). This profile indicates Luzern's high activity in the second half and supports the over total. In these conditions, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.55 seems logical: both teams regularly participate in high-scoring matches, and Luzern is particularly active after the break. In Luzern's last five matches, four went over 2.5, while Thun had three. The average goals stats for both teams support a bet on the over total.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

For corners, Thun averages 6.6 over five matches, Luzern 5.6. In a five-game series, Thun has four matches over 9.5 corners, Luzern has two. Looking at the odds, for a total corners of 9.5, both sides are possible: over 9.5 is at 1.73, under 9.5 at 1.97. For the outcome on corners, Thun is the favorite with odds of 1.75. Considering the average sum of corners (12.2), it makes sense to consider a bet on over 9.5 corners. Both teams often win corners, especially Thun, which could lead to high activity in this component. It's also worth noting that Thun has four out of five matches over 9.5 corners, further confirming the trend towards an over total in this segment.