Prediction for match Thun — Luzern

Match Analysis: Thun vs Luzern

In the Swiss Super League on February 28, Thun will face Luzern. According to the 1X2 odds, a win for Thun is priced at 1.84, a draw at 3.92, and a victory for Luzern at 3.72. Looking at the probability percentages, Thun's chances of winning are 50.92%, a draw is valued at 23.90%, and Luzern's chances of winning are 25.18%. Thus, the bookmakers favor Thun, but Luzern is not a clear underdog. The match line also includes extended options for totals and individual performances, allowing for bets tailored to different game scenarios.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Thun has shown strong form: a 3-0 win over Winterthur (25.02.2026), a narrow victory against Sion 1-0 (15.02.2026), and a 5-1 thrashing of Lausanne (12.02.2026). They also beat Servette 3-1 (08.02.2026) and Basel 2-1 (01.02.2026). Luzern, in their last five games, has also been productive: a 4-2 win over Basel (22.02.2026), a 4-1 rout of Zurich (14.02.2026), a 4-3 victory over Grasshopper (10.02.2026), a goalless draw with Sion (07.02.2026), and a 2-2 draw with St. Gallen (01.02.2026). In terms of additional metrics, Thun averages 47.8% possession, receives 1.6 yellow cards, commits 14.2 fouls, and has 1.4 offsides per game. Luzern holds 51.8% possession, receives 2 yellows, commits 13 fouls, and has 1.2 offsides. In their last head-to-head on December 6, 2025, Thun defeated Luzern 4-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams have shown high scoring potential in their last five matches. Thun's average total goals per game is 3.4, while Luzern's is 4.4. Both teams score an average of 2.8 goals per match, but Thun concedes only 0.6, whereas Luzern concedes 1.6. In a series of five games, the over 2.5 total was hit 4 times by both teams. By halves, Thun had over 1.5 goals in the first half once and in the second half 4 times. Luzern had over 1.5 in the first half 3 times and in the second half also 4 times. In terms of goal intervals, Thun scores most frequently in the 76-90 minute range (38%), while Luzern scores even more impressively in the same interval at 64%. For goals conceded, Thun's most common intervals are 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (33% each), while Luzern's is 61-75 minutes (33%). Overall, both teams tend to have high-scoring finishes, and the frequent occurrence of the over 2.5 total and average goal stats make betting on over 3.0 total at 1.59 the main option. Support is also provided by the halves - both teams regularly score in the second half, which also increases the chances of the chosen total being exceeded.

Corner Totals Analysis

On average, Thun earns 6.6 corners per match, Luzern 5.4, totaling 12. In the five-match series, Thun's over 9.5 corners was hit 5 times, Luzern's 2 times out of 5. Among the available corner totals, the closest to the average sum is the 9.5 option, with two outcomes: over 9.5 corners at 1.56, under 9.5 at 2.18. In the corner outcomes line, Thun is the favorite with odds of 1.48. Considering the average corner productivity and the frequency of the over 9.5 total hit by Thun, betting on over 9.5 corners looks logical for this match. It's also worth noting that both teams actively use the flanks, contributing to a high number of corner kicks. Recent matches between these opponents often recorded double-digit corner numbers, confirming the tendency for high activity in this component.