Prediction for match Fiorentina — Milan, 11.01.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages

In Serie A on January 11, Fiorentina will face Milan. According to the 1X2 odds, Milan is the favorite with odds of 2.06 and a 47.85% chance of winning. A draw is priced at 3.56 (27.69%), while Fiorentina's victory is at 4.03 (24.46%). This setup reflects Milan's advantage in expectations, but Fiorentina shouldn't be underestimated considering their recent performances. This match is expected to feature a battle for ball control, as both teams have high possession rates—58.2% for Fiorentina and 57% for Milan in their last five games.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Fiorentina recorded the following results: a 2-2 draw with Lazio on January 7, a 1-0 win over Cremonese on January 4, a 0-1 loss to Parma on December 27, a 5-1 win against Udinese on December 21, and a 0-1 loss to Lausanne on December 18. During the same period, Milan drew 1-1 with Genoa on January 8, defeated Cagliari 1-0 on January 2, crushed Verona 3-0 on December 28, lost to Napoli 0-2 on December 18, and drew 2-2 with Sassuolo on December 14. In their head-to-head clash on October 19, 2025, Milan beat Fiorentina 2-1. Over their last five matches, Fiorentina averages 2.6 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Milan, in the same period, averages 1.6 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Both teams show discipline and activity in their ball challenges.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Fiorentina has an average of 2.6 goals per game, while Milan averages 2.4. Fiorentina scores an average of 1.6 and concedes 1, while Milan scores 1.4 and concedes 1. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches and under in 3 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred once in 5 matches for both teams, while in the second half, Fiorentina had 2 out of 5, and Milan 3 out of 5. This suggests that both teams tend to be more active in the second half. In terms of goal intervals, Fiorentina often scores between 46-60 minutes (40%) and concedes evenly in three intervals: 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (33% each). Milan most frequently scored between 31-45 and 46-60 minutes (38% each) and conceded most often in the final minutes - 76-90 (40%). Given these stats and the fact that neither team leans strongly towards an under-profile, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.07 appears justified. The average goal stats and support across halves suggest a minimum of three goal-scoring actions.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Fiorentina averages 4.6 corners, while Milan averages 7.4 per match in their last five games. The frequency of over 9.5 corners for both teams is 4 out of 5. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to the combined average (12) is 11.5. The odds for over 11.5 corners are 3.24, and for under 11.5, they are 1.24. Milan is the favorite for the corner outcome with odds of 1.95. Considering both teams' flank activity and the high frequency of large totals, it makes sense to consider a bet on higher corner totals, especially if the game is played at a high tempo with numerous attacking actions.