Prediction for match Flamengo — Corinthians

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Brazilian Super Cup on February 1st, Flamengo will face Corinthians - a clash that always sparks interest among fans. The odds for Flamengo's victory are at 1.78, a draw is priced at 3.28, and a win for Corinthians is at 5.00. The probabilities for the outcomes are distributed as follows: Flamengo - 52.67%, draw - 28.58%, Corinthians - 18.75%. Bookmakers clearly lean towards Flamengo coming out on top, as reflected in both the percentages and odds. Meanwhile, a draw is also considered possible, while a Corinthians win is seen as the least likely outcome. For goal totals, Over 2.5 is at 2.19 and Under 2.5 is at 1.65, with both teams to score: yes at 2.02, no at 1.71. This set of odds suggests that bookmakers do not expect a high-scoring game, but do not rule out both teams finding the net.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Flamengo has an average possession of 58.4%, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 12.4 fouls, and is caught offside 0.8 times per game. Corinthians, over the same period, holds 55.8% possession, receives 2.2 yellows, commits 10.2 fouls, and is offside once per match. In their last three matches, Flamengo lost to São Paulo 1-2 (29.01.2026), lost to Fluminense 1-2 (25.01.2026), and defeated Vasco da Gama 1-0 (22.01.2026). Corinthians recently lost to Bahia 1-2 (28.01.2026), won against Velo Clube 1-0 (25.01.2026), and drew with Santos 1-1 (22.01.2026). In their last head-to-head on September 28, 2025, Corinthians lost to Flamengo 1-2. These results show that both teams are capable of winning and dropping points, with not much difference in additional metrics.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Looking at scoring trends, Flamengo's five-match series has an average total of 2.6 goals per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 per match. Corinthians has an average total of 2.2, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4. For Over/Under 2.5, Flamengo had 4 out of 5 matches go over, while Corinthians had 2 out of 5. In terms of halves, both teams have low scoring in the first half: only 1 out of 5 over 1.5. In the second half, Flamengo had 2 out of 5 over 1.5, Corinthians 1 out of 5. Flamengo most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (50%), while Corinthians scores late, from the 76th to 90th minutes (50%). Flamengo concedes evenly across three intervals: 16-30, 46-60, and 61-75 minutes (33% each), while Corinthians concedes 60% of their goals between the 31st and 45th minutes. Despite Flamengo's high frequency of Over 2.5, the low scoring by both teams (0.8 each) and Corinthians' under-profile (3 out of 5 under 2.5) make the Under 2.5 at 1.65 the most logical bet. Supporting this choice is both teams' poor chance conversion and low first-half scoring.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

On corners, Flamengo averages 7.4 per game, Corinthians 4.2. In their last five matches, Flamengo had 3 out of 5 games over 9.5 corners, Corinthians 2 out of 5. Among corner totals, the line closest to the sum average (11.6) is 11.5: over 11.5 corners is at 2.83, under 11.5 at 1.33. In corner outcomes, Flamengo is favored at 1.41. Given that both teams regularly win corners, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 9.5 or 10.5 corners, as well as Flamengo's advantage in this aspect. Flamengo's high corner activity in their last five matches could lead to higher totals.