Prediction for match Fluminense — Vitoria

Match Analysis: Fluminense vs Vitoria

On May 9, 2026, Fluminense will face Vitoria in the Serie A of the Brazilian Championship. According to bookmaker odds, Fluminense is the favorite: their victory is priced at 1.50, a draw is at 4.17, and a win for Vitoria is at 7.31. The probabilities of the outcomes are distributed as follows: Fluminense - 63.90%, Draw - 22.99%, Vitoria - 13.11%. This setup confirms Fluminense's advantage in this matchup and reflects analysts' confidence in their victory.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at recent match statistics, Fluminense has an average ball possession percentage of 63 over five games, which is significantly higher than Vitoria's 46.6. In terms of yellow cards, Fluminense averages 2.4 per match, while Vitoria averages 2. Foul statistics are close: 11.6 for Fluminense and 11.4 for Vitoria. Fluminense is caught offside 0.4 times on average, whereas Vitoria is caught 2 times per game. In their last three matches, Fluminense's results were: May 7, 2026 - Independiente Rivadavia 1-1 Fluminense, May 3, 2026 - Internacional 2-0 Fluminense, April 30, 2026 - Bolívar 2-0 Fluminense. Vitoria's last three matches showed the following results: May 2, 2026 - Vitoria 4-1 Coritiba, April 26, 2026 - Atlético Paranaense 3-1 Vitoria, April 23, 2026 - Flamengo 2-1 Vitoria. In their last head-to-head on September 20, 2025, Vitoria lost to Fluminense 0-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Fluminense has an average goal total of 1.8 over their last five matches, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.2. Vitoria's average goal total is noticeably higher at 2.8, with the team scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 per match. For matches over 2.5 goals, Fluminense has 1 out of 5, while Vitoria has 3 out of 5. In the first half, Fluminense had no matches over 1.5 goals, while Vitoria had 3 out of 5. In the second half, Fluminense played over 1.5 goals 1 out of 5 times, Vitoria 2 out of 5. In terms of scoring intervals, Fluminense most frequently scores between 61-75 minutes (40%), and concedes at the end (76-90 minutes - 100%). Vitoria is most productive between 76-90 minutes (27%), and concedes evenly in the first 45 minutes (33% in each of the three intervals). Overall, despite Vitoria's higher attacking potential, Fluminense shows low scoring, which combined with frequent under 2.5 goals matches suggests a high probability of a low-scoring game. The main prediction is under 2.5 goals at 1.82.

Corners in the Match

Fluminense has an average of 2.8 corners over five matches, while Vitoria averages 2.2. Over this five-match span, neither team has exceeded a total of 9.5 corners. Considering the total corners, the line closest to the sum of the averages is 5.5, but only the 9.5 line is available in odds, with neither outcome favored. Based on this data, a low number of corners can be expected in the match. Overall, the game promises to be restrained in terms of set pieces, and a bet on a low total of corners seems justified.