Prediction for match Mainz 05 — Hoffenheim, 21.11.2025

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Bundesliga match between Mainz 05 and Hoffenheim on November 21, 2025, the odds for a Mainz 05 victory are 2.58, Hoffenheim's win is at 2.75, and a draw is priced at 3.78. According to probability distribution, Mainz 05 has a 38.16% chance, a draw is at 26.04%, and Hoffenheim has a 35.80% chance. This indicates that both teams have comparable chances for success, but Mainz 05 has a slight edge in probability. For the double chance market, options 1X and X2 are offered at 1.51 and 1.57 respectively, while the 12 bet is available at 1.31.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Mainz 05 averages 46% possession, receives 3 yellow cards, commits 15.6 fouls, and records 2.6 offsides per game. Hoffenheim shows higher averages with 54.2% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 15.8 fouls, and 3.6 offsides. In their last three matches, Mainz 05 played as follows: November 9, 2025 - Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Mainz 05 - 1:0, November 6, 2025 - Mainz 05 vs. Fiorentina - 2:1, November 1, 2025 - Mainz 05 vs. Werder - 1:1. During the same period, Hoffenheim defeated RB Leipzig 3:1 (November 8, 2025), won against Wolfsburg 3:2 (November 2, 2025), and lost to St. Pauli 10:9 (October 28, 2025). In their last head-to-head on April 12, 2025, Hoffenheim defeated Mainz 05 with a score of 2-0, with no over 2.5 goals recorded.

Goals According to Match Statistics

In a series of five games, Mainz 05 had over 2.5 goals in 2 matches, while Hoffenheim had over 2.5 in all 5. For the first half, Mainz 05 had over 1.5 goals in only 1 out of 5 matches, while Hoffenheim had 3 out of 5. Similarly, in the second half: Mainz 05 had 1 over, Hoffenheim had 3 over. Mainz 05 averages 0.8 goals scored, 1.4 conceded, with a total of 2.2 goals per match. Hoffenheim's scoring is significantly higher: 2.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded, with a total of 4. By intervals: Mainz 05 scores most frequently at the end of the match (76-90, 50%), while Hoffenheim distributes goals across three segments of the first half (22% each in intervals 0-15, 16-30, 31-45). For goals conceded: Mainz 05 distributes them evenly across five intervals, Hoffenheim concedes most in the 46-60 segment (44%). Overall, the statistics indicate a high probability of goal activity from Hoffenheim, while Mainz 05 shows a tendency for low scoring. Over five games, Hoffenheim consistently recorded over 2.5 goals, averaging almost 3 goals per match, while Mainz 05 scores less but concedes often, with an average total of 2.2 per match. In this context, betting on over 2.5 goals seems justified, considering Hoffenheim's attacking potential and consistent scoring.

Corners in the Match

On average, over 5 matches, Mainz 05 takes 3 corners, Hoffenheim takes 5.6. The frequency of over 9.5 corners for Mainz 05 is 1 out of 5, for Hoffenheim it's 4 out of 5. Odds for over 9.5 corners are at 1.64, under 9.5 at 2.12. Mainz 05 is the favorite in corner betting with odds of 1.73. Based on these figures, it makes sense to consider a bet on over 9.5 corners, as Hoffenheim consistently delivers a high number of corners, and matches involving them often see a high total count.