Prediction for match Mainz 05 — Hamburger, 20.02.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

The match between Mainz 05 and Hamburger will take place on 20th February 2026 in the Bundesliga. According to the 1X2 odds, a win for Mainz 05 is at 2.15, a draw is at 3.30, and a win for Hamburger is at 4.03. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Mainz 05 - 45.77%, draw - 29.82%, Hamburger - 24.42%. These figures highlight Mainz 05 as the favorite, but the gap isn't significant, making the match potentially interesting for betting on totals.

Team Statistics and Scores

Looking at additional metrics, Mainz 05's averages over the last five games are: possession 42.4%, yellow cards 2.8, fouls 9.2, offsides 2.8. Hamburger's possession is higher at 50.2%, yellow cards 2.6, fouls 12.4, offsides 1.8. Mainz 05's last three matches: 13.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 05 4-0, 07.02.2026 Mainz 05 - Augsburg 2-0, 31.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Mainz 05 1-2. Hamburger's three recent results: 14.02.2026 Hamburger - Union Berlin 3-2, 07.02.2026 Heidenheim - Hamburger 0-2, 31.01.2026 Hamburger - Bayern Munich 2-2. In their last head-to-head on 05.10.2025, Hamburger defeated Mainz 05 with a score of 4-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five-game series, Mainz 05 has an average of 3.2 goals per match, while Hamburger has 2.2. Mainz 05 scores and concedes 1.6 per game, Hamburger scores 1.4 and concedes just 0.8. For over 2.5 goals, Mainz 05 finished 4 out of 5 matches with three or more goals, while Hamburger had this outcome in 2 out of 5. For over 1.5 goals in the first half, Mainz 05 had 3 out of 5, Hamburger 2 out of 5. In the second half, both teams played 2 out of 5 matches for over 1.5 goals. Regarding goal intervals, Mainz 05 most frequently scores between 76-90 minutes (31%), while Hamburger scores between 31-45 minutes (60%). For goals conceded, Mainz 05 has an even distribution across four intervals (25% each), while Hamburger most often concedes between 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (33% each). Considering Mainz 05's high scoring and Hamburger's decent scoring, along with frequent over 2.5 goals for Mainz 05, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.91 seems logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

The average number of corners for Mainz 05 over 5 matches is 6.2, and for Hamburger, it's 4.6. In a series of five games, Mainz 05 exceeded the total corners over 9.5 three times, Hamburger twice. Among the available corner totals, the closest to the average sum (10.8) is the 10.5 line, where over is at 2.30, and under is at 1.52. For the corner outcome, Mainz 05 is the favorite with odds of 1.53. With these figures, it makes sense to consider the option of over 10.5 corners or Mainz 05 having an advantage in the number of corners taken.