Prediction for match Mainz 05 — Samsunspor

Match Analysis: Mainz 05 vs Samsunspor

The Conference League will feature a match between Mainz 05 and Samsunspor, scheduled for December 18, 2025. According to the 1X2 odds, Mainz 05 is the favorite: their victory is priced at 1.67, a draw at 4.16, and a win for Samsunspor at 5.19. In terms of probabilities, Mainz 05 has a 58.03% chance of winning, a draw is at 23.30%, and Samsunspor has an 18.67% chance. This indicates an advantage for the German team, but a draw is also a possibility according to the odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Mainz 05 has had 36.8% possession, averaged 2.4 yellow cards, 12.4 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. During the same period, Samsunspor controlled the ball 52.6% of the time, received 1.2 yellow cards, committed 15 fouls, and were caught offside 2.4 times per match. In their last three games, Mainz 05 played as follows: 14.12.2025 Bayern Munich - Mainz 05 2-2, 11.12.2025 Lech Poznań - Mainz 05 1-1, 05.12.2025 Mainz 05 - Borussia M 0-1. Samsunspor's recent three matches were: 14.12.2025 Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir 0-2, 11.12.2025 Samsunspor - AEK Athens 1-2, 05.12.2025 Galatasaray - Samsunspor 3-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Mainz 05 had two games over 2.5 goals and three under, while Samsunspor had three over and two under. On average, Mainz 05 scored 0.6 goals per game, conceded 1.8, with a total match goal average of 2.4. Samsunspor's averages are higher: 1.2 goals scored, 2 conceded, 3.2 total goals per match. In terms of halves, Mainz 05 had over 1.5 goals in the first half in three out of five matches, and in the second half in two. Samsunspor had over 1.5 goals in the first half in two matches, and in four out of five second halves. Mainz 05 most frequently scored between the 16th-30th and 76th-90th minutes (25% each), while Samsunspor scored most often in the first 15 minutes (57%). Mainz 05 conceded goals evenly across four intervals (16th-75th minutes at 25% each), while Samsunspor conceded more in the 46th-60th and 76th-90th minutes (33% each). Based on this data, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.77 seems justified: both teams tend to have high-scoring halves, especially Samsunspor, and Mainz 05 concedes quite a bit.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Mainz 05 averages 4.2 corners per game, while Samsunspor averages 5.4. Over the last five matches, Mainz 05 exceeded 9.5 total corners once, and Samsunspor twice. With an average combined corners total of 9.6, the nearest line with two outcomes is a total of 9.5 corners. The odds for over 9.5 are 1.94, and for under, 1.75. Mainz 05 is favored in the corners market with odds of 1.36. Given the teams' average activity, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical, but the frequency of this outcome in recent matches isn't very high. An alternative could be to consider Samsunspor's individual corner total, as they consistently deliver over five per game.