Prediction for match Mainz 05 — Stuttgart

Match Analysis: Mainz 05 vs Stuttgart

In the Bundesliga on March 7, Mainz 05 will face Stuttgart, and according to bookmaker odds, Stuttgart is the favorite. Stuttgart's victory is priced at 2.22, Mainz 05 at 3.30, and a draw at 3.80. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: 44.31% for Stuttgart to win, 29.81% for Mainz 05, and 25.89% for a draw. This setup reflects the current form of the teams and recent match statistics, where Stuttgart has shown high scoring ability and confidence in attack. Mainz 05, while not a clear underdog, falls short on most key metrics compared to their opponent.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at secondary statistics, Mainz 05 has an average possession of 38.8%, 2.2 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 2.2 offsides over their last five matches. Stuttgart averages 60% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 7 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. In their last three matches, Mainz 05 recorded the following results: 28.02.2026 - Bayer - Mainz 05 - 1-1, 20.02.2026 - Mainz 05 - Hamburg - 1-1, 13.02.2026 - Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 05 - 4-0. Stuttgart's last three matches were: 01.03.2026 - Stuttgart - Wolfsburg - 4-0, 26.02.2026 - Stuttgart - Celtic - 0-1, 22.02.2026 - Heidenheim - Stuttgart - 3-3. In their head-to-head on 29.10.2025, Mainz 05 lost to Stuttgart 0-2. These data highlight the difference in style and effectiveness between the teams.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Stuttgart looks strong in terms of scoring: an average of 4 goals over 5 matches, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.2. Mainz 05 has an average total of 2.6, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.4. In their last 5 games, Mainz 05 had over 2.5 goals twice and under three times. Stuttgart recorded over 2.5 goals four times and under only once. By halves, Mainz 05 had over 1.5 goals twice in the first half and once in the second, while Stuttgart had over 1.5 goals three times in both halves. Mainz 05 most frequently scores in the 0-15, 31-45, and 76-90 minute intervals (33% each), while conceding most often between 61 and 75 minutes (50%). Stuttgart scores most frequently between 16-30 and 76-90 minutes (36% each) and concedes at the beginning (0-15, 33%) and end (76-90, 33%). Given the profiles of both teams, especially Stuttgart's high scoring ability and support in both halves, at least three goals are expected in the match. Therefore, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.66 seems justified.

Corner Totals Analysis

For corners, Mainz 05 averages 4.2 per game, while Stuttgart averages 5.6. In the last 5 matches, Mainz 05 exceeded 9.5 corners only once, while Stuttgart did so twice. The total closest to the average is 9.5, with both options available: over 9.5 corners at 1.80, under 9.5 at 1.94. The outcome on corners slightly favors Mainz 05, with odds of 2.07. Overall, considering the average statistics of both teams, it makes sense to consider over 9.5 corners as both teams are capable of creating chances and attacking actively, especially Stuttgart.