Prediction for match Gil Vicente — Alverca

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

In the Primeira Liga on March 14, Gil Vicente will face Alverca. The 1X2 odds are as follows: a win for Gil Vicente is at 1.73, a draw is priced at 3.74, and a win for Alverca is at 5.41. In terms of percentages: there's a 56.11% chance for a Gil Vicente victory, a 25.95% chance for a draw, and a 17.94% chance for Alverca to win. These figures highlight Gil Vicente as the clear favorite, with Alverca as the underdog. Considering the recent match statistics and odds, attention should be paid to Gil Vicente's attacking potential and their scoring efficiency compared to Alverca.

Recent Matches Review

In their last five matches, Gil Vicente recorded the following results: a 2-2 draw with Estrela (08.03.2026), a 1-2 loss to Benfica (02.03.2026), a 1-3 defeat against Estoril (22.02.2026), a 2-1 win over Braga (14.02.2026), and a 2-1 victory against Moreirense (07.02.2026). Alverca played a 0-0 draw with ABC (07.03.2026), a 1-1 draw with Vitória Guimarães (28.02.2026), a 1-1 draw with Santa Clara (21.02.2026), a 1-1 draw with Tondela (13.02.2026), and a 1-2 loss to Benfica (08.02.2026). In their last head-to-head on October 24, 2025, Alverca lost 0-4 to Gil Vicente. Additional metrics show: Gil Vicente's average ball possession over five games is 52.4%, yellow cards 1.4, fouls 12.6, offsides 2. Alverca's possession is 47.2%, yellow cards 2.2, fouls 11, offsides 0.2. These stats underline the difference in style and discipline between the teams.

Teams' Scoring Streaks

Regarding total goals, Gil Vicente has a strong over-profile: all 5 of their last matches went over 2.5 goals, with an average of 3.4 goals per game, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 on average. Alverca, on the other hand, went over 2.5 goals just once in their last 5, with an average total of 1.8 goals, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1. By halves, Gil Vicente saw over 1.5 goals in the second half in 5 out of 5 games, but only 1 out of 5 in the first half. Alverca's halves are both low-scoring: 1 out of 5 for over 1.5 goals in each half. Goal intervals show Gil Vicente often scores between 61-75 minutes (44%) and concedes evenly across three intervals - 0-15, 31-45, and 61-75 (25% each). Alverca scores mainly at the end (76-90 minutes - 40%) and concedes evenly in four intervals - 0-15, 16-30, 61-75, 76-90 (25% each). Given Gil Vicente's high scoring and Alverca's low productivity, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.77 seems optimal.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Gil Vicente averages 5.6 corners per game, Alverca 5.8. For a total over 9.5 corners: Gil Vicente has 1 out of 5, Alverca 3 out of 5. Among all corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (11.4) is 11.5. Odds for over 11.5 corners are 3.28, under 11.5 is 1.25. For corner outcomes, Gil Vicente is the favorite with odds of 1.34. In this match, an active battle for set-pieces is expected, but frequent over 9.5 totals are only recorded by Alverca. It makes sense to consider Alverca's individual corner total over 5.5, given their average, or the overall total over 9.5 as a risky option.