Prediction for match Gil Vicente — Nacional, 17.01.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

The match between Gil Vicente and Nacional will take place on January 17, 2026, as part of the Portuguese Primeira Liga. According to the 1X2 odds, a win for Gil Vicente is priced at 1.68, a draw at 3.80, and a victory for Nacional at 5.72. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Gil Vicente 57.61%, draw 25.47%, Nacional 16.92%. This setup reflects the advantage of Gil Vicente, although a draw is not ruled out according to the bookmakers. The odds for over 2.5 goals are at 2.07, while under 2.5 is at 1.82, indicating a balance between expectations for a high-scoring and a more cautious game. The odds for both teams to score: yes is at 1.95, no at 1.76, which also confirms moderate expectations for goals from both sides.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Gil Vicente drew with Sporting Lisbon 1-1 (02.01.2026), shared points with Arouca 2-2 (28.12.2025) and Rio Ave 2-2 (20.12.2025). They also had draws with Casa Pia 1-1 (13.12.2025) and Vitória Guimarães 0-0 (08.12.2025). Nacional, in their last five matches, drew 3-3 with Santa Clara (11.01.2026), lost to Vitória Guimarães 1-2 (02.01.2026), drew 2-2 with ABC (21.12.2025), won against Tondela 3-1 (15.12.2025), and lost to Alverca 0-1 (07.12.2025). On average over five matches, Gil Vicente had 51.8% possession, committed 12.6 fouls, received 3 yellow cards, and recorded 2 offsides. Nacional had 49.2% possession, 14.6 fouls, 2.4 yellow cards, and 1.6 offsides. In their last head-to-head meeting on August 9, 2025, Nacional lost to Gil Vicente 0-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Gil Vicente has an average total of 2.4 goals per match, scoring and conceding 1.2 each. Nacional has a higher average total of 3.6, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 per game. In terms of over/under 2.5 goals: Gil Vicente had 2 out of 5 matches over 2.5, while Nacional had 4 out of 5 over 2.5. By halves: Gil Vicente had 2 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half and 1 out of 5 in the second, while Nacional had 2 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half and 4 out of 5 in the second. Gil Vicente most frequently scores in the 0-15 and 76-90 minute intervals (33% each), while Nacional scores most often in the 76-90 minute interval (33%). Gil Vicente concedes most frequently in the 31-45 minute interval (67%), while Nacional concedes late in the game (76-90 minutes, 33%). Overall, both teams tend towards high-scoring football, especially Nacional, as confirmed by both the average totals and the frequency of over 2.5 goals. A bet on over 2.5 goals at 2.07 seems logical given this profile.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

On average over five matches, Gil Vicente takes 7.6 corners, while Nacional takes 2.4. In terms of over 9.5 corners: Gil Vicente had 4 out of 5 over, and Nacional had 3 out of 5 over. According to the odds, the total over 8.5 corners is priced at 1.50, under 8.5 at 2.31. Gil Vicente is favored to win the corner count at odds of 1.32. On average, the teams can expect about 10 corners per match, with Gil Vicente being noticeably more active in this aspect. A bet on over 8.5 corners seems justified, considering both teams' statistics and the frequency of overs in recent matches. It's also worth considering individual corner stats for Gil Vicente, where the team consistently exceeds 5-6 corners per game.