Prediction for match Vitoria Guimaraes — Moreirense, 30.01.2026

Match Analysis: Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense

On January 30th, Vitoria Guimaraes will face Moreirense in the Primeira Liga. The odds for the main outcomes are as follows: a win for Vitoria Guimaraes is priced at 2.10, a draw at 3.37, and a win for Moreirense at 3.87. In terms of probabilities: Vitoria Guimaraes 46.17%, draw 28.77%, Moreirense 25.05%. Vitoria Guimaraes is the favorite according to the odds, but the gap isn't overwhelming, which is reflected in the probability percentages. Bets on totals and both teams to score have interesting values, but bookmakers are mainly focusing on moderate scoring.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last 5 matches, Vitoria Guimaraes recorded these results: January 24 - Estoril 4-2 Vitoria Guimaraes, January 18 - Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 Porto, January 2 - Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 Nacional. During the same period, Moreirense played as follows: January 24 - Moreirense 1-0 Santa Clara, January 17 - Alverca 2-1 Moreirense, January 11 - Moreirense 1-0 Tondela. In their last head-to-head on August 23, 2025, Moreirense defeated Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0. In additional metrics, Vitoria Guimaraes averaged 50.2% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 18 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game in their last five matches. Moreirense displayed 55.4% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. These figures suggest a calmer style of play from Moreirense with fewer fouls and slightly more possession.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of scoring, Vitoria Guimaraes has an average total of 3 goals in their last five matches, scoring 1 and conceding 2 per game. Moreirense averages 1.4 goals per match, scoring 1 and conceding only 0.4. For over 2.5 goals, Vitoria Guimaraes had 3 out of 5 matches with high scores, whereas Moreirense had only 1 out of 5. In the first half, Vitoria Guimaraes recorded more than 1.5 goals twice, while Moreirense had none. In the second half, Vitoria Guimaraes played over 1.5 goals three times, Moreirense once. Vitoria Guimaraes scores most frequently between 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (29% each), and concedes most often between 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (33% each). Moreirense scores most often between 61-75 minutes (50%) and concedes evenly across three intervals: 0-15, 46-60, and 61-75 (33% each). Considering Moreirense's low scoring and Vitoria Guimaraes' average scoring, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.69 seems logical.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Vitoria Guimaraes averages 3 corners per match, Moreirense 4. In the last five matches, Vitoria Guimaraes did not exceed a total of over 9.5 corners, while Moreirense did so in 2 out of 5 matches. Looking at the odds, over 7.5 corners is priced at 1.30, under 7.5 at 2.97. With the average sum close to the pair's total (3+4=7), over 7.5 corners is 1.30, under 7.5 is 2.97. Vitoria Guimaraes is favored for corners with odds of 1.27. Statistics suggest the match won't feature a high number of corners, and a bet on the lower total for this category seems justified. On average, both teams do not show significant activity in this component, and higher totals are rarely achieved.