Prediction for match Vitoria Guimaraes — Tondela

Odds and Probability Percentages

Vitoria Guimaraes will face Tondela in the Primeira Liga on April 3rd. The odds for a Vitoria Guimaraes win are set at 1.79, a draw at 3.72, and a Tondela victory at 4.93. The probabilities are as follows: Vitoria Guimaraes - 54.22%, draw - 26.09%, Tondela - 19.69%. Vitoria Guimaraes is considered the favorite, but the odds are not overwhelmingly in their favor, leaving room for competition. The betting line also includes options for totals and both teams to score, but the 1X2 outcome stands out as the main market for analysis.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Vitoria Guimaraes lost to Benfica 0-3 (21.03.2026), were defeated by Famalicao 1-2 (14.03.2026), and lost 0-2 to Santa Clara (08.03.2026). Tondela, in their last three encounters, drew 0-0 with ABC (21.03.2026), lost 0-1 to Rio Ave (09.03.2026), and drew 2-2 with Santa Clara (01.03.2026). Over the last five matches, Vitoria Guimaraes has an average possession of 52.8%, 1.6 yellow cards, 15.6 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. Tondela's averages are: possession 48.4%, yellow cards 2.2, fouls 14.6, offsides 0.6. In their last head-to-head on November 8, 2025, Tondela lost to Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Vitoria Guimaraes has an average total goals of 3 over their last five matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2. Tondela's average total is 1.8, scoring 1 and conceding 0.8. For over 2.5 goals, Vitoria Guimaraes has seen 3 out of 5 matches exceed this total, while Tondela only 1 out of 5. In the first half, Vitoria Guimaraes had 3 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals, Tondela 1 out of 5. Similarly, in the second half, Vitoria Guimaraes had 3 out of 5 with over 1.5 goals, Tondela 1 out of 5. Vitoria Guimaraes most frequently scores between 0-15 and 46-60 minutes (30% each), and concedes most often between 16-30 and 46-60 minutes (40% each). Tondela scores most frequently in the intervals of 0-15, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes (33% each), and concedes mostly in the first 15 minutes (43%). Overall, Vitoria Guimaraes tends to have high-scoring matches but scores few themselves, while Tondela has a low conceding rate. In these conditions, a bet on under 2.5 goals seems logical, considering Tondela's only one over 2.5 in five games, and Vitoria Guimaraes' average goals come largely from those conceded.

Corner Bets

Vitoria Guimaraes averages 3.4 corners in their last five matches, while Tondela averages 5.6. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners, both teams have seen 3 out of 5 matches exceed this total. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to the average sum (9) is 9.5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.70, and under 9.5 is 2.01. Vitoria Guimaraes is the favorite for corner outcomes with odds of 1.28. Considering both teams regularly take corners and the high frequency of over 9.5 corners, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified for this match.