Prediction for match Heracles — Excelsior

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Eredivisie on March 20, Heracles will face Excelsior. According to the 1X2 odds, Heracles is priced at 2.64 to win, Excelsior at 2.88, and a draw is at 3.16. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Heracles - 36.34%, draw - 30.36%, Excelsior - 33.31%. The odds suggest a fairly balanced match, with a slight edge for Heracles. However, other markets highlight the total goals bet, considering both teams' profiles in recent matches.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five games, Heracles had an average possession of 47%, committed 13.6 fouls, was caught offside 1.2 times, and received 2 yellow cards per match. In the same period, Excelsior showed 51.8% possession, 9.8 fouls, 1.2 offsides, and 1 yellow card. Heracles' last three matches were: March 15 - AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles, March 6 - Heracles 0-0 Utrecht, February 28 - Heracles 1-3 PSV. Excelsior's last three games were: March 15 - Feyenoord 2-1 Excelsior, March 7 - Excelsior 1-2 Heerenveen, March 1 - Excelsior 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles. In their head-to-head on November 8, 2025, Excelsior hosted Heracles and lost 1-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over the last five-match series, Heracles averaged 2.6 goals per match, scoring only 0.2 and conceding 2.4. Excelsior has a similar average total of 2.6, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8. Over 2.5 goals were seen in 3 of Heracles' last 5 games, and 4 of Excelsior's last 5. In the first half, Heracles had 2 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals, while Excelsior had none. In the second half, Heracles had 2 out of 5, while Excelsior had 4 out of 5. Heracles tends to score most frequently between 76-90 minutes (33%), while Excelsior scores between 46-60 (50%). Heracles is most vulnerable in the first 15 minutes (50%), while Excelsior is in the final minutes (76-90, 43%). This data suggests that both teams are more productive in the second half, and both support the over 2.5 goals profile. Considering this, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.72 seems justified.

Corner Bets

Heracles averages 3.8 corners per game over 5 matches, while Excelsior averages 5.4. The frequency of over 9.5 corners is 2 out of 5 for Heracles and 3 out of 5 for Excelsior. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to their combined average (9.2) is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.60, under 9.5 at 2.11. Heracles is the favorite in the corner market with odds of 1.92. Based on the statistics, considering a bet on over 9.5 corners is logical, as both teams average a good number of corners, and the series support this choice.