Prediction for match HNK Rijeka — Hajduk Split

Match Analysis: HNK Rijeka vs Hajduk Split

In the Croatian Cup on March 4, 2026, HNK Rijeka will face Hajduk Split. According to the 1X2 odds, Rijeka is the favorite: their victory is offered at 2.18, a draw at 2.91, and Hajduk Split's success is rated at 3.37. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 41.74% for a Rijeka win, 31.27% for a draw, and 27.00% for a Hajduk Split win. This setup reflects Rijeka's advantage in the odds, although bookmakers also rate the draw outcome quite high. The match promises to be tense, considering the close odds and outcome percentages.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Rijeka has shown confident play: in this five-game stretch, the team averaged 48.6% ball possession, 2.8 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 0.6 offsides per game. Hajduk Split, in a similar period, has 63.4% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 13.8 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. In Rijeka's last three matches: March 1, 2026 - Rijeka vs Lokomotiva Zagreb - 2-0, February 26, 2026 - Rijeka vs Omonia Nicosia - 3-1, February 22, 2026 - Hajduk Split vs Rijeka - 1-0. For Hajduk Split, the last three matches are: February 28, 2026 - Varaždin vs Hajduk Split - 1-1, February 22, 2026 - Hajduk Split vs Rijeka - 1-0, February 15, 2026 - Osijek vs Hajduk Split - 0-2. In head-to-head encounters, the last game was on February 22, 2026: Hajduk Split vs Rijeka - 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a series of five matches, Rijeka shows an average total of 2.4 goals, scoring an average of 1.8 and conceding 0.6 per game. Hajduk Split's average total goals in the same period is 1.6, with 1.2 scored and 0.4 conceded. For over 2.5 goals, Rijeka has 2 out of 5, and Hajduk Split has 0 out of 5 - the team shows a clearly low-scoring profile. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred for Rijeka 1 time out of 5, and for Hajduk Split 2 times out of 5. In the second half, Rijeka has 2 out of 5 for over 1.5, and Hajduk Split has none for 5 games. In terms of goal intervals, Rijeka most often scores in the 76-90 minute segment (30%), while Hajduk Split scores in the 31-45 interval (40%). Meanwhile, Rijeka most often concedes at the end (76-90, 67%), and Hajduk Split concedes 33% in three different intervals: 0-15, 16-30, and 76-90. Considering Hajduk Split's low scoring, frequent under 2.5 goals, and Rijeka's average scoring, it's logical to consider the option of under total. The line highlights a bet on under 2.25 total at 1.58, which appears most justified by both teams' statistics.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Rijeka averages 3.2 corners per match, Hajduk Split - 8. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners, Rijeka has 1 out of 5, and Hajduk Split has 3 out of 5. If we consider the sum of the average corners of both teams (3.2 + 8 = 11.2), the nearest total with a pair of odds is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 2.00, under 9.5 at 1.75. Hajduk Split is the favorite for the corner outcome with odds of 1.54. Statistically, Hajduk Split consistently delivers a lot of corners, while Rijeka significantly lags in this indicator, which could lead to Hajduk Split dominating the number of corners. It makes sense to consider a bet on Hajduk Split's individual corners total over 7.5 or the overall total over 9.5, given both teams' average figures.