Prediction for match HNK Rijeka — Istra 1961

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the upcoming HNL match between HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961, the main focus is on the 1X2 market. Rijeka's victory is priced at 1.55, a draw at 3.86, and an Istra 1961 win at 5.90. The probabilities for the main outcomes are distributed as follows: Rijeka - 60.09%, draw - 24.13%, Istra 1961 - 15.79%. These figures indicate a significant advantage for Rijeka, which is also supported by the recent match statistics of both teams. The match is scheduled for 15.03.2026.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at additional metrics, Rijeka's average ball possession over the last five games is 47.4%, with the team averaging 1.8 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per match. Istra 1961 has higher possession at 54.8%, along with 2.8 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Rijeka played as follows: 12.03.2026 - Rijeka vs Strasbourg 1-2, 08.03.2026 - Vukovar vs Rijeka 0-1, 01.03.2026 - Rijeka vs Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0. Istra 1961 in the same period: 06.03.2026 - Istra 1961 vs Osijek 0-1, 27.02.2026 - Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 1-0, 21.02.2026 - Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica 0-2. The last head-to-head match was on 20.01.2026: Istra 1961 vs Rijeka 1-2.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of scoring, Rijeka's average number of goals per match over the last five matches is 2.2, with the team scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8. Istra 1961 has a higher average total of 2.6, but only scores 0.4 while conceding 2.2. For over 2.5 goals, both teams had 2 out of 5 matches with three or more goals, and 3 out of 5 with fewer. In the first half, Rijeka never exceeded a total of 1.5 goals in 5 matches, while Istra 1961 did so in 1 out of 5. In the second half, both teams had 2 out of 5 matches over 1.5 goals. Goal intervals show Rijeka most frequently scoring between the 76th and 90th minutes (57%), while conceding mostly in the first 15 minutes (50%). Istra 1961's goals are spread across four intervals: 0-15, 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes, with 22% in each, and they concede most often between the 76th and 90th minutes (40%). Considering Istra 1961's low scoring and Rijeka's solid defense, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.76 seems logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Rijeka's average corners over 5 matches is 2.8, while Istra 1961 averages 5. For over 9.5 corners, Rijeka had only 1 out of 5 matches with 10 or more corners, while Istra 1961 had 3 out of 5. The line is set at 9.5: over 9.5 is priced at 2.12, under 9.5 at 1.64. Rijeka is favored in the corner market with odds of 1.24. Based on the data, betting on under 9.5 corners seems justified, considering Rijeka's low average and Istra 1961's moderate activity.