Prediction for match HNK Rijeka — Sparta Praha

Match Analysis: HNK Rijeka vs Sparta Praha

In the UEFA Conference League on October 23, 2025, HNK Rijeka will face Sparta Praha. The main odds for the match outcomes are: Sparta Praha is given 2.00, corresponding to a 47.01% probability of winning. Rijeka's chances are rated at 3.60 (26.12%), while a draw is at 3.50 with a 26.87% probability. Based on these figures, Sparta Praha is the favorite, but the odds for a draw are also significant, with the gap between the teams being less than 21 percentage points.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Rijeka has shown modest scoring: an average of 1 goal scored and 0.8 conceded, with a total of 1.8 goals per game. Sparta Praha has higher averages over the same period: 2 goals scored per match and 0.6 conceded, with a total goal average of 2.6. Sparta also holds a notable advantage in corners (8.2 compared to Rijeka's 5.2) and ball possession (66% versus Rijeka's 47.6%). Recently, Rijeka drew 1-1 with Slaven Belupo (October 18, 2025) and lost 1-3 to HNK Gorica (October 5, 2025). Sparta Praha, in the same period, defeated Shamrock Rovers 4-1 (October 2, 2025) and Baník Ostrava 3-0 (September 27, 2025). In their head-to-head match in 2022, Sparta Praha beat Rijeka 2-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Regarding totals: in Rijeka's last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals occurred once, while for Sparta Praha, it happened 3 times. The first team averages 1 goal scored and 0.8 conceded, while Sparta Praha's figures are higher at 2 and 0.6. In terms of halves, Rijeka only had one match out of five where the second half was more than 1.5 goals, whereas Sparta Praha had two such instances. In the first half, Rijeka did not exceed 1.5 goals in any match, while Sparta Praha did so 3 times. Rijeka's goal intervals are evenly distributed: 25% in each of the 0-15, 31-45, 61-75, and 76-90 minute segments. Sparta Praha scored 43% of their goals between the 31-45 minute mark, and most of their conceded goals (33%) occurred in the first 15 minutes.

Corners in the Match

Rijeka averages 5.2 corners over 5 matches, while Sparta Praha averages 8.2. For totals over 9.5 corners: the hosts exceeded this in 3 out of 5 matches, and the visitors in 4 out of 5. The total corners over 9.5 is priced at 2.10, while under 9.5 is at 1.67. In corner outcomes, Sparta Praha is favored with odds of 1.83.