Prediction for match Independiente — Rosario Central, 16.11.2025

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

The match between Independiente and Rosario Central will take place on November 16, 2025, as part of the Argentine Professional League. According to bookmakers, Independiente is favored: a home win is priced at 1.85, a draw at 3.20, and a victory for Rosario Central at 4.75. The outcome probabilities are: Independiente - 50.82%, draw - 29.38%, Rosario Central - 19.79%. The most likely outcome is considered to be a win for Independiente, but a draw also holds significant weight according to the percentage.

Team Form and Secondary Statistics

Independiente stands out with a high ball possession rate of 64 over the last five matches, with the team recording 3 yellow cards, 8.8 fouls, and 2.4 offsides per game. Rosario Central shows more modest possession figures at 52.4, with fewer yellow cards (2.2), fouls (7.6), and offsides (1.2). In the last three matches, Independiente: 10.11.2025 - Deportivo Riestra - Independiente 0-1, 01.11.2025 - Independiente - Atletico Tucuman 3-0, 24.10.2025 - Independiente - Platense 3-0. For Rosario Central: 08.11.2025 - Rosario Central - San Lorenzo 0-0, 01.11.2025 - Instituto Cordoba - Rosario Central 1-3, 24.10.2025 - Atletico Sarmiento - Rosario Central 0-1. In their last head-to-head on 03.05.2025, Rosario Central - Independiente ended 1-0, with under 2.5 goals scored.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over the last five matches, both teams average 1.4 goals per game: Independiente concedes 0.6, Rosario Central 0.4. The average total goals in Independiente's matches is 2, while Rosario Central's is 1.8. The frequency of over 2.5 goals occurring is 2 out of 5 for each side, and under 2.5 goals is 3 out of 5. In the first halves, over 1.5 goals occurred only in 1 out of 5 matches for both teams, and in the second halves, 2 out of 5. The most frequent interval when Independiente scores is the 16-30 minute mark (38%), and for Rosario Central, it's the 46-60 minute mark (67%). Independiente most often concedes between the 76-90 minute mark (50%), and Rosario Central between the 61-90 minute mark (33% in each interval). Overall, the match is shaping up to be low-scoring: both teams have an average of no more than 1.4 goals, and under 2.5 goals occurred in most recent matches. The most logical bet seems to be under 2.5 goals at 1.53.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Independiente averages 6.4 corners over the last 5 games, Rosario Central 3.8. Independiente's total corners over 9.5 occurred 4 times out of 5, while for Rosario Central, only 1 out of 5. The line offers over 8.5 corners at 1.73, under 9 at 1.80, under 8.5 and over 9 at 2.00 each. The outcome for corners: Independiente is the favorite with odds of 1.57. With such numbers, a bet on over 8.5 corners seems justified, considering Independiente's high frequency and average.