Prediction for match Italy — Northern Ireland

Match Analysis: Italy vs Northern Ireland

In the European qualification for the World Cup, Italy faces Northern Ireland. The match is scheduled for 26.03.2026. According to the odds for the main outcome, Italy is favored with odds of 1.31, a draw is priced at 5.69, and a Northern Ireland win is at 13.40. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Italy's success is at 75.30%, a draw at 17.34%, and Northern Ireland's victory at 7.36%. This setup clearly favors Italy, as confirmed by the statistical indicators of the teams' recent matches. The betting line also highlights bets on total goals and individual performances, but Italy looks the most confident based on probabilities.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Italy averages 61.2% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 0.8 offsides per game. Northern Ireland lags in ball control with 33.6%, and averages 3.6 yellow cards, 15.2 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. In their last three matches, Italy played as follows: 16.11.2025 - Italy vs Norway - 1-4, 13.11.2025 - Moldova vs Italy - 0-2, 14.10.2025 - Italy vs Israel - 3-0. Northern Ireland's last three matches resulted in: 17.11.2025 - Northern Ireland vs Luxembourg - 1-0, 14.11.2025 - Slovakia vs Northern Ireland - 1-0, 13.10.2025 - Northern Ireland vs Germany - 0-1. In their head-to-head on 15.11.2021, the teams drew 0-0, and on 25.03.2021, Italy won 2-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Italy has an average total of 4.6 goals, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.8 per game. Northern Ireland averages 1.8 goals in total, scoring only 0.8 and conceding 1. Italy covered the over 2.5 goals total in 4 out of 5 matches, while Northern Ireland did so only once, with the rest being low-scoring. Italy had a total over 1.5 in the first half twice out of five and five out of five in the second half. Northern Ireland had over 1.5 in the first half only once, and once in the second half. Italy most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (44%), while Northern Ireland scores between the 61st and 75th and the 76th and 90th minutes (29% each). Italy concedes most often at the end (76-90, 47%), and Northern Ireland at the end of the first half (31-45, 100%). Given Italy's strong over-profile, regular over 2.5 goal outcomes, and Northern Ireland's low scoring, a bet on over 2.5 goals seems justified. The odds for this outcome are 1.84.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Italy averages 7 corners per game, while Northern Ireland averages 4.4. In the last five matches, the total over 9.5 corners was achieved by both teams only once. Considering the total corners, the line closest to the average sum (11.4) would be 11.5, but there are no odds for over and under. The nearest suitable line is 9.5: total corners over 9.5 is 2.09, under 9.5 is 1.66. Italy is favored in corners with odds of 1.22. Given that both teams rarely exceed high corner totals, a bet on under 9.5 corners seems logical, though a moderate total of around 9-10 corners is also possible.